RSI Oversold Thrust: What Happens After It Fires?
SPY's 14-day Relative Strength Index was below 30 at some point in the last 20 trading days and today crosses above 60. A momentum thrust off an oversold low — a sharp, decisive recovery from a panic condition back to an overbought-leaning regime.
The base rates
Since 1993, the RSI Oversold Thrust signal has fired 13 times on SPY (most recently on 2026-04-09). Six months later, SPY was higher 92% of the time (12 completed cases) with an average return of +10.7% and a median of +11.1%. Twelve months later, SPY was higher 92% of the time (12 completed cases), averaging +18.3% with a worst case of -11.8% and a best of +42.8%. Data through 2026-06-05.
RSI(14) < 30 within last 20 sessions. Yesterday: RSI < 60. Today: RSI >= 60.Forward returns
| Horizon | % Positive | Avg Return | Median | Best | Worst | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 69% | +0.44% | +0.62% | +3.20% | -4.17% | 13 |
| 1m | 77% | +2.34% | +3.20% | +8.49% | -6.61% | 13 |
| 3m | 92% | +5.75% | +6.18% | +14.05% | -2.41% | 12 |
| 6m | 92% | +10.75% | +11.12% | +29.47% | -11.72% | 12 |
| 9m | 92% | +12.81% | +12.32% | +34.04% | -8.69% | 12 |
| 12m | 92% | +18.30% | +16.76% | +42.80% | -11.77% | 12 |
Trigger history
SPY with Trigger Markers
Every occurrence
| Date | SPY | 1w | 1m | 3m | 6m | 9m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | $679.91 | +3.20% | +8.49% | — | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | $436.93 | +2.70% | +4.87% | +14.05% | +19.05% | +21.99% | +36.32% |
| 2019-01-18 | $266.46 | -1.01% | +4.48% | +8.94% | +11.80% | +11.83% | +24.33% |
| 2016-11-09 | $216.38 | +0.69% | +4.68% | +6.99% | +10.44% | +12.82% | +19.31% |
| 2014-10-30 | $199.38 | +1.89% | +3.20% | +1.27% | +5.99% | +5.22% | +4.29% |
| 2012-12-11 | $143.44 | +1.35% | +2.53% | +9.27% | +14.48% | +17.78% | +24.60% |
| 2010-08-02 | $112.76 | +0.20% | -6.61% | +5.08% | +14.12% | +20.81% | +14.21% |
| 2009-03-23 | $82.22 | -4.17% | +2.82% | +8.59% | +29.47% | +34.04% | +42.80% |
| 2005-11-09 | $122.39 | +0.90% | +3.22% | +3.47% | +5.60% | +3.77% | +12.90% |
| 2004-09-02 | $112.58 | +0.43% | +1.12% | +6.00% | +9.02% | +6.72% | +8.80% |
| 2001-04-18 | $124.00 | -0.67% | +4.15% | -2.41% | -11.72% | -8.69% | -11.77% |
| 1996-08-02 | $66.59 | -0.35% | -1.26% | +6.37% | +17.71% | +22.30% | +42.57% |
| 1993-05-20 | $45.16 | +0.62% | -1.26% | +1.40% | +3.03% | +5.07% | +1.26% |
Forward returns are computed from SPY closing prices. Cells showing “—” indicate the horizon has not yet elapsed for that trigger. Small samples from a generally rising market — base rates are evidence, not forecasts.