10% Correction: What Happens After It Fires?
SPY closes 10% or more below its all-time high — the textbook definition of a market correction. Each episode counts once: after a trigger, SPY must climb back to a fresh all-time high before the signal can fire again, so a drawn-out bear market is one occurrence, not many.
The base rates
Since 1993, the 10% Correction signal has fired 12 times on SPY (most recently on 2025-03-13). Six months later, SPY was higher 83% of the time (12 completed cases) with an average return of +11.6% and a median of +13.2%. Twelve months later, SPY was higher 75% of the time (12 completed cases), averaging +12.0% with a worst case of -34.7% and a best of +51.1%. Data through 2026-07-02.
Close <= 90% of the running all-time high. Re-arms only after a new all-time high.SPY since this trigger: $551.42 → $744.78 (through 2026-07-02)
- 1w
- +2.6%
- avg +3.5%
- 1m
- -3.2%
- avg +2.7%
- 3m
- +9.5%
- avg +7.5%
- 6m
- +19.2%
- avg +11.6%
- 9m
- +25.0%
- avg +11.3%
- 12m
- +21.3%
- avg +12.0%
Forward returns
| Horizon | % Positive | Avg Return | Median | Best | Worst | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 92% | +3.51% | +3.95% | +8.25% | -0.53% | 12 |
| 1m | 67% | +2.68% | +3.69% | +14.47% | -14.82% | 12 |
| 3m | 83% | +7.49% | +7.57% | +25.10% | -7.60% | 12 |
| 6m | 83% | +11.60% | +13.22% | +32.41% | -10.16% | 12 |
| 9m | 75% | +11.29% | +13.26% | +29.06% | -27.99% | 12 |
| 12m | 75% | +12.03% | +15.39% | +51.10% | -34.73% | 12 |
Trigger history
SPY with Trigger Markers
Every occurrence
| Date | SPY | 1w | 1m | 3m | 6m | 9m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-13 | $551.42 | +2.55% | -3.17% | +9.49% | +19.22% | +24.98% | +21.33% |
| 2022-02-22 | $429.57 | +0.10% | +3.31% | -7.60% | -4.01% | -8.14% | -6.73% |
| 2020-02-27 | $297.51 | +1.66% | -14.82% | +1.84% | +16.83% | +22.09% | +27.85% |
| 2018-10-29 | $263.86 | +3.61% | +4.06% | +2.30% | +10.35% | +11.74% | +15.27% |
| 2018-02-08 | $257.63 | +5.98% | +8.11% | +5.59% | +10.65% | +9.07% | +5.04% |
| 2015-08-24 | $189.55 | +4.28% | +2.14% | +10.42% | +1.93% | +9.66% | +15.52% |
| 2008-01-08 | $138.91 | -0.53% | -3.59% | -2.22% | -10.16% | -27.99% | -34.73% |
| 2000-04-14 | $135.50 | +4.98% | +8.26% | +11.44% | +1.52% | -1.96% | -11.99% |
| 1999-09-29 | $126.81 | +4.59% | +6.11% | +15.77% | +19.25% | +14.79% | +12.89% |
| 1998-08-14 | $106.13 | +2.29% | -1.95% | +5.65% | +15.78% | +26.44% | +26.02% |
| 1997-10-27 | $87.19 | +8.25% | +9.24% | +12.08% | +25.45% | +29.06% | +22.72% |
| 1997-04-11 | $73.38 | +4.33% | +14.47% | +25.10% | +32.41% | +25.80% | +51.10% |
Forward returns are computed from SPY closing prices. Cells showing “—” indicate the horizon has not yet elapsed for that trigger. Small samples from a generally rising market — base rates are evidence, not forecasts.