Golden Cross: What Happens After It Fires?
SPY's 50-day simple moving average crosses above its 200-day simple moving average. The most recognizable long-term trend-change signal in technical analysis — it marks the moment the intermediate trend aligns with the long-term trend on the upside.
The base rates
Since 1993, the Golden Cross signal has fired 15 times on SPY (most recently on 2025-07-01). Six months later, SPY was higher 100% of the time (15 completed cases) with an average return of +8.4% and a median of +6.8%. Twelve months later, SPY was higher 93% of the time (15 completed cases), averaging +14.1% with a worst case of -9.8% and a best of +38.5%. Data through 2026-09-04.
Yesterday: SMA(50) <= SMA(200). Today: SMA(50) > SMA(200).SPY since this trigger: $617.65 → $770.19 (through 2026-09-04)
- 1w
- +1.0%
- avg +0.5%
- 1m
- +2.3%
- avg +2.4%
- 3m
- +7.9%
- avg +5.5%
- 6m
- +11.2%
- avg +8.4%
- 9m
- +6.1%
- avg +12.9%
- 12m
- +20.6%
- avg +14.1%
Forward returns
| Horizon | % Positive | Avg Return | Median | Best | Worst | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 67% | +0.54% | +1.04% | +2.91% | -2.33% | 15 |
| 1m | 73% | +2.38% | +2.34% | +9.30% | -9.38% | 15 |
| 3m | 80% | +5.45% | +4.42% | +19.83% | -3.27% | 15 |
| 6m | 100% | +8.44% | +6.80% | +24.60% | +0.46% | 15 |
| 9m | 100% | +12.95% | +12.33% | +30.89% | +3.35% | 15 |
| 12m | 93% | +14.11% | +15.17% | +38.53% | -9.82% | 15 |
Trigger history
SPY with Trigger Markers
Every occurrence
| Date | SPY | 1w | 1m | 3m | 6m | 9m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-01 | $617.65 | +1.04% | +2.34% | +7.86% | +11.23% | +6.09% | +20.58% |
| 2023-02-02 | $416.78 | -2.33% | -2.95% | -2.80% | +7.21% | +3.35% | +18.18% |
| 2020-07-09 | $314.38 | +2.04% | +6.42% | +8.39% | +20.59% | +30.89% | +38.53% |
| 2019-04-01 | $285.83 | +1.04% | +2.09% | +3.44% | +3.83% | +12.33% | -9.82% |
| 2016-04-25 | $208.61 | -0.31% | -0.35% | +3.85% | +2.57% | +9.10% | +14.35% |
| 2015-12-17 | $204.86 | +0.40% | -9.38% | -0.09% | +1.46% | +4.17% | +9.85% |
| 2012-01-31 | $131.32 | +2.64% | +4.88% | +7.17% | +4.87% | +7.64% | +15.17% |
| 2010-10-22 | $118.35 | +0.12% | +1.55% | +9.08% | +12.92% | +13.08% | +4.75% |
| 2009-06-23 | $89.35 | +2.91% | +9.30% | +19.83% | +24.60% | +30.77% | +22.25% |
| 2006-09-11 | $130.41 | +1.33% | +3.73% | +8.44% | +6.80% | +16.47% | +13.39% |
| 2004-11-05 | $117.28 | +1.29% | +0.70% | +2.38% | +0.46% | +4.58% | +4.12% |
| 2003-05-15 | $95.11 | -1.62% | +6.89% | +4.42% | +11.80% | +21.05% | +15.70% |
| 1999-11-10 | $137.72 | +2.84% | +3.02% | +2.79% | +2.58% | +6.38% | +2.06% |
| 1998-12-08 | $118.41 | -1.45% | +7.89% | +10.32% | +10.56% | +13.80% | +18.84% |
| 1994-09-14 | $47.06 | -1.89% | -0.45% | -3.27% | +5.16% | +14.51% | +23.74% |
Forward returns are computed from SPY closing prices. Cells showing “—” indicate the horizon has not yet elapsed for that trigger. Small samples from a generally rising market — base rates are evidence, not forecasts.
SPY since this trigger: $617.65 → $770.19 (through 2026-09-04)
- 1w
- +1.0%
- avg +0.5%
- 1m
- +2.3%
- avg +2.4%
- 3m
- +7.9%
- avg +5.5%
- 6m
- +11.2%
- avg +8.4%
- 9m
- +6.1%
- avg +12.9%
- 12m
- +20.6%
- avg +14.1%