50/200 MA Reclaim: What Happens After It Fires?
SPY closes above both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages after being below both the day before. A classic trend-repair trigger — it flags the moment price transitions from a below-trend regime back above both intermediate- and long-term moving averages.
The base rates
Since 1993, the 50/200 MA Reclaim signal has fired 7 times on SPY (most recently on 2026-04-08). Six months later, SPY was higher 67% of the time (6 completed cases) with an average return of +2.0% and a median of +1.6%. Twelve months later, SPY was higher 83% of the time (6 completed cases), averaging +2.7% with a worst case of -42.3% and a best of +24.1%. Data through 2026-07-21.
Yesterday: close < SMA(50) AND close < SMA(200). Today: close > SMA(50) AND close > SMA(200).SPY since this trigger: $676.01 → $748.28 (through 2026-07-21)
- 1w
- +3.5%
- avg -1.0%
- 1m
- +8.2%
- avg -1.9%
- 3m
- +11.2%
- avg +0.8%
- 6m
- —
- avg +2.0%
- 9m
- —
- avg +5.0%
- 12m
- —
- avg +2.7%
Forward returns
| Horizon | % Positive | Avg Return | Median | Best | Worst | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 43% | -0.97% | -0.97% | +3.54% | -5.43% | 7 |
| 1m | 57% | -1.92% | +0.62% | +8.22% | -10.85% | 7 |
| 3m | 43% | +0.78% | -0.99% | +11.20% | -11.02% | 7 |
| 6m | 67% | +1.97% | +1.57% | +12.49% | -11.67% | 6 |
| 9m | 83% | +4.95% | +8.26% | +20.57% | -20.30% | 6 |
| 12m | 83% | +2.75% | +8.68% | +24.13% | -42.26% | 6 |
Trigger history
SPY with Trigger Markers
Every occurrence
| Date | SPY | 1w | 1m | 3m | 6m | 9m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | $676.01 | +3.54% | +8.22% | +11.20% | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-03 | $279.30 | -5.43% | -9.63% | -1.54% | +1.97% | +6.63% | +11.51% |
| 2015-12-16 | $208.03 | -0.97% | -9.60% | -1.75% | -0.73% | +2.57% | +9.03% |
| 2007-12-24 | $149.23 | -2.88% | -10.85% | -11.02% | -11.67% | -20.30% | -42.26% |
| 2004-10-27 | $112.88 | +1.86% | +4.85% | +4.03% | +1.17% | +10.36% | +5.75% |
| 1999-10-06 | $132.63 | -3.35% | +2.94% | +5.56% | +12.49% | +9.89% | +8.34% |
| 1994-10-11 | $46.63 | +0.47% | +0.62% | -0.99% | +8.58% | +20.57% | +24.13% |
Forward returns are computed from SPY closing prices. Cells showing “—” indicate the horizon has not yet elapsed for that trigger. Small samples from a generally rising market — base rates are evidence, not forecasts.
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