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GrowthUpdated with every release

Real GDP Growth

Real GDP growth is the inflation-adjusted change in the total value of goods and services the US economy produces, reported by the BEA each quarter as an annualized quarter-over-quarter rate. It is the broadest single read on economic activity and the official scorecard against which recessions and expansions are measured.

Latest reading

As of January 2026, GDP (Real GDP growth (q/q annualized)) stands at 1.6% — up from 1.4% the prior reading. US trend growth sits around 1.8-2.0%; readings above 3% signal a hot economy and below 1% flag near-stagnation. Two consecutive negative quarters is the popular recession shorthand, though the NBER makes the actual call. Watch the 4-quarter average to cut through quarterly noise, and remember every estimate gets revised — sometimes substantially. Series history runs from 1947 to present.

Source
BEA via FRED (A191RL1Q225SBEA), quarterly, annualized rate
Methodology
Real Gross Domestic Product
Updates
Quarterly
Last: 2026-01-01
GDP2026-01-01
1.6%
from 1.4%

Real GDP growth (q/q annualized)

All-time high 34.9% (2020-07)
All-time low -28.0% (2020-04)
Since 1947
Observations 316

Next release: Jun 25, 2026

01

Full history

Range:
Real GDP growth (q/q annualized)4-quarter averageSPY price (right, since 1993)
02

How to read it

US trend growth sits around 1.8-2.0%; readings above 3% signal a hot economy and below 1% flag near-stagnation. Two consecutive negative quarters is the popular recession shorthand, though the NBER makes the actual call. Watch the 4-quarter average to cut through quarterly noise, and remember every estimate gets revised — sometimes substantially.

03

Methodology & data

GDP is sourced from BEA via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (BEA via FRED (A191RL1Q225SBEA), quarterly, annualized rate). We pull the complete history, chart it on a quarterly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.

Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-06-09. See our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.

Category
Growth
Frequency
Quarterly
Source
BEA
Download CSV
04

Related indicators

All economic indicators
05

Frequently asked questions

What is the Real GDP Growth?

Real GDP growth is the inflation-adjusted change in the total value of goods and services the US economy produces, reported by the BEA each quarter as an annualized quarter-over-quarter rate. It is the broadest single read on economic activity and the official scorecard against which recessions and expansions are measured.

How do you read GDP?

US trend growth sits around 1.8-2.0%; readings above 3% signal a hot economy and below 1% flag near-stagnation. Two consecutive negative quarters is the popular recession shorthand, though the NBER makes the actual call. Watch the 4-quarter average to cut through quarterly noise, and remember every estimate gets revised — sometimes substantially.

Where does the GDP data come from?

BEA via FRED (A191RL1Q225SBEA), quarterly, annualized rate. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/gdp.csv.

How often is GDP updated?

GDP is a quarterly series from BEA, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.