Real GDP Growth
Real GDP growth is the inflation-adjusted change in the total value of goods and services the US economy produces, reported by the BEA each quarter as an annualized quarter-over-quarter rate. It is the broadest single read on economic activity and the official scorecard against which recessions and expansions are measured.
Latest reading
As of January 2026, GDP (Real GDP growth (q/q annualized)) stands at 1.6% — up from 1.4% the prior reading. US trend growth sits around 1.8-2.0%; readings above 3% signal a hot economy and below 1% flag near-stagnation. Two consecutive negative quarters is the popular recession shorthand, though the NBER makes the actual call. Watch the 4-quarter average to cut through quarterly noise, and remember every estimate gets revised — sometimes substantially. Series history runs from 1947 to present.
Real GDP growth (q/q annualized)
Next release: Jun 25, 2026
Full history
How to read it
US trend growth sits around 1.8-2.0%; readings above 3% signal a hot economy and below 1% flag near-stagnation. Two consecutive negative quarters is the popular recession shorthand, though the NBER makes the actual call. Watch the 4-quarter average to cut through quarterly noise, and remember every estimate gets revised — sometimes substantially.
Methodology & data
GDP is sourced from BEA via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (BEA via FRED (A191RL1Q225SBEA), quarterly, annualized rate). We pull the complete history, chart it on a quarterly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-06-09. See our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
- Category
- Growth
- Frequency
- Quarterly
- Source
- BEA
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Real GDP Growth?
Real GDP growth is the inflation-adjusted change in the total value of goods and services the US economy produces, reported by the BEA each quarter as an annualized quarter-over-quarter rate. It is the broadest single read on economic activity and the official scorecard against which recessions and expansions are measured.
How do you read GDP?
US trend growth sits around 1.8-2.0%; readings above 3% signal a hot economy and below 1% flag near-stagnation. Two consecutive negative quarters is the popular recession shorthand, though the NBER makes the actual call. Watch the 4-quarter average to cut through quarterly noise, and remember every estimate gets revised — sometimes substantially.
Where does the GDP data come from?
BEA via FRED (A191RL1Q225SBEA), quarterly, annualized rate. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/gdp.csv.
How often is GDP updated?
GDP is a quarterly series from BEA, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.