Economic releases on Thursday, October 1, 2026
- 01
Initial Jobless Claims fell to 197K
Initial claims, the week of Sep 26, 2026, from 198K for the week of Sep 19, 2026. Source: DOL.
Initial claims, last five years Initial claims, last five years - 02
Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose to 337.3
Case-Shiller index (Jan 2000=100), July 2026, from 336.9 for June 2026. It is the highest on record (since 1987). Source: S&P CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller index (Jan 2000=100), last five years Case-Shiller index (Jan 2000=100), last five years - 03
Continued Jobless Claims fell to 1.70M
Continued claims, the week of Sep 19, 2026, from 1.71M for the week of Sep 12, 2026. It is the lowest since Apr 1, 2023. Source: DOL.
Continued claims, last five years Continued claims, last five years - 04
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate rose to 7.28%
30Y fixed rate, the week of Oct 1, 2026, from 7.03% for the week of Sep 24, 2026. It is the highest since Nov 22, 2023. Source: Freddie Mac.
30Y fixed rate, last five years 30Y fixed rate, last five years - 05
Smoothed Recession Probability rose to 0.6%
Recession probability, August 2026, from 0.2% for July 2026. Source: Chauvet/FRED.
Recession probability, last five years Recession probability, last five years - 06
Freight Transportation Services Index fell to 135.7
Freight TSI (2000=100), July 2026, from 136.6 for June 2026. Source: BTS.
Freight TSI (2000=100), last five years Freight TSI (2000=100), last five years
Every official economic release dated Thursday, October 1, 2026, in order of importance and then by how unusual the reading is against its own history. Days with no releases have no edition. Market moves are not part of the edition. Values are those shown on each indicator page, which carry later revisions; charts end on the edition's date. Research and education, not financial advice.