Smoothed Recession Probability
This indicator gives a continuous 0-100% probability that the US economy is in a recession right now, rather than the binary on/off of NBER dating. Built by Chauvet and Piger using a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model, it synthesizes four monthly series — nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, real personal income ex-transfers, and real manufacturing and trade sales — into a single smoothed estimate.
Recession probability
Next release: Oct 1, 2026
Latest reading
As of July 2026, Recession Prob. (Recession probability) stands at 0.8% — up from 0.6% the prior reading, 99.2 pp below the March 2020 record of 100.0%. Below ~10% means clear expansion; 30-50% is meaningful recession risk; above 80% has historically been confirmed as recession by NBER within months. The signal worth respecting is a sharp rise from low levels, which has preceded official recession calls. Because it uses revised data, the current-month reading can shift as inputs are restated, and it identifies recessions rather than forecasting them. Series history runs from 1993 to present.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-09-04 · Open ↓Close ↑
Full history
Methodology & data
Recession Prob. is sourced from Chauvet/FRED via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Chauvet/Piger model via FRED (RECPROUSM156N), monthly). We pull the complete history, chart it on a monthly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-09-04. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Smoothed Recession Probability?
This indicator gives a continuous 0-100% probability that the US economy is in a recession right now, rather than the binary on/off of NBER dating. Built by Chauvet and Piger using a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model, it synthesizes four monthly series — nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, real personal income ex-transfers, and real manufacturing and trade sales — into a single smoothed estimate.
How do you read Recession Prob.?
Below ~10% means clear expansion; 30-50% is meaningful recession risk; above 80% has historically been confirmed as recession by NBER within months. The signal worth respecting is a sharp rise from low levels, which has preceded official recession calls. Because it uses revised data, the current-month reading can shift as inputs are restated, and it identifies recessions rather than forecasting them.
Where does the Recession Prob. data come from?
Chauvet/Piger model via FRED (RECPROUSM156N), monthly. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/recession-probabilities.csv.
How often is Recession Prob. updated?
Recession Prob. is a monthly series from Chauvet/FRED, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.
Recession probability
Next release: Oct 1, 2026