3% Down Day: What Happens After It Fires?
SPY falls 3% or more in a single session, close to close — panic-grade selling that makes front-page news. Such days cluster inside crises, so with the standard cooldown each occurrence marks the start of a distinct stress episode rather than every bad day of one crash.
The base rates
Since 1993, the 3% Down Day signal has fired 45 times on SPY (most recently on 2025-04-03). Six months later, SPY was higher 71% of the time (45 completed cases) with an average return of +7.9% and a median of +7.8%. Twelve months later, SPY was higher 76% of the time (45 completed cases), averaging +15.8% with a worst case of -30.9% and a best of +62.8%. Data through 2026-07-02.
Today's close <= 97% of yesterday's close.SPY since this trigger: $536.70 → $744.78 (through 2026-07-02)
- 1w
- -2.3%
- avg +0.5%
- 1m
- +5.0%
- avg +0.7%
- 3m
- +15.6%
- avg +4.4%
- 6m
- +24.7%
- avg +7.9%
- 9m
- +28.1%
- avg +11.1%
- 12m
- +22.8%
- avg +15.8%
Forward returns
| Horizon | % Positive | Avg Return | Median | Best | Worst | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 60% | +0.53% | +0.77% | +11.33% | -18.91% | 45 |
| 1m | 60% | +0.68% | +0.90% | +14.89% | -24.59% | 45 |
| 3m | 71% | +4.41% | +5.53% | +26.15% | -29.60% | 45 |
| 6m | 71% | +7.89% | +7.85% | +36.05% | -44.43% | 45 |
| 9m | 80% | +11.09% | +12.32% | +51.12% | -50.03% | 45 |
| 12m | 76% | +15.77% | +17.08% | +62.75% | -30.91% | 45 |
Trigger history
SPY with Trigger Markers
Every occurrence
| Date | SPY | 1w | 1m | 3m | 6m | 9m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-03 | $536.70 | -2.26% | +5.00% | +15.65% | +24.69% | +28.14% | +22.83% |
| 2022-08-26 | $405.31 | -3.22% | -10.35% | -0.74% | -2.23% | +3.67% | +10.82% |
| 2022-06-13 | $375.00 | +0.02% | +0.78% | +4.83% | +6.39% | +3.81% | +16.58% |
| 2022-04-29 | $412.00 | -0.16% | +0.23% | -0.30% | -5.58% | -1.34% | -0.28% |
| 2020-10-28 | $326.66 | +5.17% | +11.33% | +13.29% | +27.75% | +34.24% | +40.30% |
| 2020-09-03 | $345.39 | -3.28% | -1.63% | +6.17% | +10.52% | +22.24% | +31.18% |
| 2020-06-11 | $300.61 | +3.72% | +4.73% | +11.07% | +22.04% | +31.09% | +41.15% |
| 2020-04-01 | $246.15 | +11.33% | +14.89% | +26.15% | +36.05% | +51.12% | +62.75% |
| 2020-02-24 | $322.42 | -4.13% | -24.59% | -8.37% | +5.29% | +10.97% | +20.18% |
| 2019-08-05 | $283.82 | +1.52% | +3.60% | +7.86% | +15.94% | +0.83% | +16.29% |
| 2018-12-04 | $270.25 | -1.77% | -5.87% | +1.56% | +6.44% | +10.29% | +15.46% |
| 2018-10-10 | $278.30 | +0.77% | +0.79% | -6.94% | +4.26% | +8.07% | +6.46% |
| 2018-02-05 | $263.93 | +0.53% | +3.35% | +1.13% | +7.85% | +3.02% | +3.34% |
| 2016-06-24 | $203.13 | +3.34% | +6.71% | +6.33% | +10.95% | +15.01% | +19.77% |
| 2015-08-21 | $197.63 | +0.83% | -1.88% | +5.53% | -2.69% | +3.84% | +10.58% |
| 2011-11-09 | $123.16 | +0.75% | +2.35% | +9.09% | +10.11% | +14.36% | +12.27% |
| 2011-09-22 | $112.86 | +2.83% | +9.84% | +10.02% | +23.74% | +18.25% | +29.25% |
| 2011-08-04 | $120.26 | -2.44% | -2.00% | +3.10% | +11.87% | +13.92% | +15.87% |
| 2010-06-04 | $106.82 | +2.68% | -3.70% | +2.48% | +14.74% | +24.01% | +22.09% |
| 2010-05-06 | $112.94 | +2.70% | -6.60% | -0.08% | +6.21% | +15.80% | +18.30% |
| 2010-02-04 | $106.44 | +1.59% | +7.36% | +6.11% | +6.02% | +12.69% | +22.87% |
| 2009-03-30 | $78.79 | +6.10% | +10.92% | +17.65% | +34.94% | +43.06% | +49.00% |
| 2009-02-17 | $79.22 | -2.20% | +0.90% | +15.16% | +24.10% | +38.37% | +39.18% |
| 2009-01-14 | $84.37 | -1.92% | -1.91% | +2.52% | +11.60% | +29.56% | +36.22% |
| 2008-11-05 | $96.19 | -10.78% | -8.59% | -9.57% | -3.34% | +5.21% | +11.08% |
| 2008-10-02 | $111.85 | -18.91% | -13.43% | -16.89% | -24.67% | -19.71% | -8.37% |
| 2008-09-04 | $124.03 | +1.19% | -11.04% | -29.60% | -44.43% | -23.77% | -18.85% |
| 2008-06-06 | $136.29 | -0.10% | -6.64% | -8.71% | -37.41% | -50.03% | -30.91% |
| 2007-02-27 | $139.50 | +0.14% | +1.66% | +9.13% | +5.34% | +1.04% | -0.92% |
| 2003-03-24 | $86.69 | -2.25% | +6.33% | +13.53% | +18.30% | +25.62% | +26.27% |
| 2002-09-03 | $88.28 | +3.87% | -5.81% | +6.63% | -5.47% | +12.32% | +17.08% |
| 2002-07-10 | $92.12 | -1.50% | -1.27% | -12.76% | -0.79% | -5.53% | +7.79% |
| 2002-01-29 | $110.28 | -1.01% | +0.79% | -2.19% | -17.54% | -18.74% | -21.58% |
| 2001-09-17 | $104.30 | -3.45% | +5.46% | +8.47% | +12.61% | +0.64% | -15.79% |
| 2001-03-12 | $118.08 | -0.62% | -1.21% | +6.79% | -6.80% | -5.10% | -1.19% |
| 2001-01-05 | $129.19 | +2.18% | +4.80% | -12.30% | -7.35% | -14.85% | -11.03% |
| 2000-04-04 | $145.75 | +3.20% | -2.70% | -0.77% | -2.14% | -7.38% | -23.95% |
| 2000-01-04 | $139.75 | +3.40% | +2.46% | +4.29% | +3.49% | +2.06% | -3.40% |
| 1998-09-10 | $97.25 | +4.88% | +1.32% | +21.98% | +33.04% | +33.48% | +39.72% |
| 1998-08-04 | $107.00 | -0.11% | -7.16% | +4.56% | +19.07% | +26.06% | +22.08% |
| 1998-01-09 | $92.31 | +4.33% | +10.65% | +20.12% | +26.21% | +6.74% | +37.07% |
| 1997-10-27 | $87.19 | +8.25% | +9.24% | +12.08% | +25.45% | +29.06% | +22.72% |
| 1997-08-15 | $89.66 | +3.23% | +5.89% | +2.54% | +14.25% | +23.46% | +20.88% |
| 1997-04-11 | $73.38 | +4.33% | +14.47% | +25.10% | +32.41% | +25.80% | +51.10% |
| 1996-03-08 | $63.50 | +0.99% | +1.01% | +6.50% | +3.84% | +17.75% | +27.31% |
Forward returns are computed from SPY closing prices. Cells showing “—” indicate the horizon has not yet elapsed for that trigger. Small samples from a generally rising market — base rates are evidence, not forecasts.