Is a recession coming?
No single indicator calls recessions reliably. This page reads nine of the most-watched, each dated by the day it was published so the history only uses what was known at the time: the yield curve, the Sahm rule, jobless and continuing claims, the leading index, building permits, real retail sales, industrial production and corporate credit spreads.
No sign when clear gauges outnumber warning ones by 3 or more; warning when warning ones lead by 3 or more; watch in between.
Latest read
No sign. On October 7, 2026, 9 of the 9 gauges read clear and 0 read warning. All 9 gauges have read clear on 577 sessions since February 1994, in 10 separate stretches. From days with no recession in the prior year, no sign verdicts were followed by a recession within 12 months 8% of the time, against 11% for all such days.
Sources, methodology & freshnessThe site's tools: Yield curve, 10-year minus 3-month, Sahm rule, Jobless claims, Continuing claims, change over a year and more · Daily after the US market close.Data as of 2026-10-07 · Open ↓Close ↑
The 9 gauges
Reading clear: Yield curve, 10-year minus 3-month; Sahm rule; Jobless claims; Continuing claims, change over a year; Leading economic index, 6-month change; Building permits, change over a year; Real retail sales, change over a year; Industrial production, change over a year; Corporate credit spread. Each rule was fixed on round numbers near the gauge’s quartiles before any forward result was examined.
| Gauge | Reading | Rank since 1994 | Clear if | Warning if | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield curve, 10-year minus 3-month | +1.06 pts | 43rd pctile | ≥ +0.5 pts | inverted (below 0) | clear |
| Sahm rule | 0.00 | 50th pctile | below 0.3 | 0.5 or more | clear |
| Jobless claims (4-week) above their 52-week low | +0.5% | 20th pctile | ≤ +10% | ≥ +20% | clear |
| Continuing claims, change over a year | −10.4% | 28th pctile | ≤ +5% | ≥ +15% | clear |
| Leading economic index, 6-month change | +0.51 | 73rd pctile | rising | down 1 point or more | clear |
| Building permits, change over a year | +4.2% | 54th pctile | ≥ 0 | ≤ −15% | clear |
| Real retail sales, change over a year | +2.5% | 57th pctile | ≥ +2% | ≤ 0 | clear |
| Industrial production, change over a year | +1.4% | 40th pctile | ≥ +1% | ≤ −1% | clear |
| Corporate credit spread (Baa minus 10-year) | 1.48 pts | 4th pctile | ≤ 2.0 pts | ≥ 3.0 pts | clear |
The verdict every day since 1994
The line is clear gauges minus warning ones, from +9 to −9; the shaded bands are the no sign and warning verdicts. Since February 1994 the verdict has been no sign on 76% of sessions, watch on 17% and warning on 8%.
How unusual is today's reading?
All 9 gauges have read clear on 577 sessions since February 1994, in 10 separate stretches. The earliest began in March 1994 and the most recent in August 2026.
What followed
The test is whether a verdict was followed by a new recession, counted from days with no recession in the prior year. Warning signs have raised the odds well above the base rate, and they also gave false alarms; the record covers only three recessions, so treat the rates as rough. From days with no recession in the prior year, no sign verdicts were followed by a recession within 12 months 8% of the time, against 11% for all such days.
| Condition | Sessions | Recession within 12 months | SPY next year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Every day | 8,215 | 11.3%n=6,681 | +13.1%83% up |
| No sign verdict | 6,210 | 8.4%n=5,814 | +12.7%83% up |
| Watch verdict | 1,376 | 31.3%n=828 | +15.3%83% up |
| Warning verdict | 629 | 20.5%n=39 | +24.8%87% up |
| First warning verdict, first day | Count | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 17, 2001 | 4 of 9 | −0.1% | −7.1% | −15.1% |
| April 10, 2008 | 5 of 9 | +2.1% | −7.9% | −36.9% |
| April 15, 2020 | 6 of 9 | +2.6% | +15.9% | +49.7% |
| May 18, 2023 | 4 of 9 | +4.3% | +4.1% | +26.4% |
No sign when clear gauges outnumber warning ones by 3 or more; warning when warning ones lead by 3 or more; watch in between.
How the Economy Verdict Works
- 1Read 9 gaugesEach row comes from one of the site's tools and links to it: Yield curve, 10-year minus 3-month; Sahm rule; Jobless claims (4-week) above their 52-week low; Continuing claims, change over a year; Leading economic index, 6-month change; Building permits, change over a year; Real retail sales, change over a year; Industrial production, change over a year; Corporate credit spread (Baa minus 10-year).
- 2Give each one a state from a fixed ruleEvery gauge reads clear, watch or warning by a rule printed beside it. The rules were set on round numbers near each gauge's quartiles before any forward result was examined.
- 3Count, do not blendThe verdict is a count of clear and warning gauges, never a weighted score, so every part of it can be checked against its own page.
- 4Replay it and test itThe same scoring runs on every session since February 1994, so the chart and today's verdict cannot disagree, and what followed each verdict is compared with every day in the window.