Leading Economic Index (OECD CLI)
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the US blends component series that historically lead GDP — order books, building permits, confidence surveys, rate spreads, and equity prices — into one index normalized so that 100 marks trend growth. It is the freely available cousin of the proprietary Conference Board LEI.
Latest reading
As of January 2024, Leading Index (OECD CLI (index, 100 = trend)) stands at 99.8 — up from 99.7 the prior reading. Read it relative to 100: above means above-trend growth, below means below-trend. Direction matters more than level — a rising CLI even under 100 points to improving conditions, while a falling CLI above 100 warns of deterioration. Watch for peaks and troughs, which tend to lead actual turning points by 6-9 months. It carries a roughly two-month publication lag. Series history runs from 1993 to present.
OECD CLI (index, 100 = trend)
Next release: TBD
Full history
How to read it
Read it relative to 100: above means above-trend growth, below means below-trend. Direction matters more than level — a rising CLI even under 100 points to improving conditions, while a falling CLI above 100 warns of deterioration. Watch for peaks and troughs, which tend to lead actual turning points by 6-9 months. It carries a roughly two-month publication lag.
Methodology & data
Leading Index is sourced from OECD via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (OECD via FRED (USALOLITONOSTSAM), monthly, normalized to 100). We pull the complete history, chart it on a monthly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-06-09. See our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
- Category
- Growth
- Frequency
- Monthly
- Source
- OECD
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Leading Economic Index (OECD CLI)?
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the US blends component series that historically lead GDP — order books, building permits, confidence surveys, rate spreads, and equity prices — into one index normalized so that 100 marks trend growth. It is the freely available cousin of the proprietary Conference Board LEI.
How do you read Leading Index?
Read it relative to 100: above means above-trend growth, below means below-trend. Direction matters more than level — a rising CLI even under 100 points to improving conditions, while a falling CLI above 100 warns of deterioration. Watch for peaks and troughs, which tend to lead actual turning points by 6-9 months. It carries a roughly two-month publication lag.
Where does the Leading Index data come from?
OECD via FRED (USALOLITONOSTSAM), monthly, normalized to 100. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/leading-economic-index.csv.
How often is Leading Index updated?
Leading Index is a monthly series from OECD, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.