Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
The Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, measures how far the 3-month average unemployment rate has risen above its lowest point in the prior 12 months. Built to be simple, real-time, and based solely on the unemployment rate, it crosses its threshold the moment a recession likely begins — without waiting on the NBER's lagged official dating.
Latest reading
As of May 2026, Sahm Rule (Sahm Rule indicator) stands at 0.10 — down from 0.13 the prior reading. Below 0.3 means the labor market is healthy with no signal. The 0.3-0.5 zone is elevated and worth watching. At 0.50 the rule triggers — historically a reliable mark that a recession is underway, correct for every US recession since 1970. The speed of the rise matters, and the brief 2024 trip above the line is a reminder to read it alongside other indicators, not in isolation. Series history runs from 1993 to present.
Sahm Rule indicator
Next release: Jul 02, 2026
Full history
How to read it
Below 0.3 means the labor market is healthy with no signal. The 0.3-0.5 zone is elevated and worth watching. At 0.50 the rule triggers — historically a reliable mark that a recession is underway, correct for every US recession since 1970. The speed of the rise matters, and the brief 2024 trip above the line is a reminder to read it alongside other indicators, not in isolation.
Methodology & data
Sahm Rule is sourced from Sahm/FRED via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / Claudia Sahm via FRED (SAHMREALTIME), monthly). We pull the complete history, chart it on a monthly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-06-09. See our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
- Category
- Labor
- Frequency
- Monthly
- Source
- Sahm/FRED
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator?
The Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, measures how far the 3-month average unemployment rate has risen above its lowest point in the prior 12 months. Built to be simple, real-time, and based solely on the unemployment rate, it crosses its threshold the moment a recession likely begins — without waiting on the NBER's lagged official dating.
How do you read Sahm Rule?
Below 0.3 means the labor market is healthy with no signal. The 0.3-0.5 zone is elevated and worth watching. At 0.50 the rule triggers — historically a reliable mark that a recession is underway, correct for every US recession since 1970. The speed of the rise matters, and the brief 2024 trip above the line is a reminder to read it alongside other indicators, not in isolation.
Where does the Sahm Rule data come from?
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / Claudia Sahm via FRED (SAHMREALTIME), monthly. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/sahm-rule.csv.
How often is Sahm Rule updated?
Sahm Rule is a monthly series from Sahm/FRED, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.