Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
The Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, measures how far the 3-month average unemployment rate has risen above its lowest point in the prior 12 months. Built to be simple, real-time, and based solely on the unemployment rate, it crosses its threshold the moment a recession likely begins — without waiting on the NBER's lagged official dating.
Sahm Rule indicator
Next release: Oct 2, 2026
Latest reading
No — as of August 2026 the Sahm rule is not triggered: the indicator reads -0.07, below the 0.50 recession threshold. As of August 2026, Sahm Rule (Sahm Rule indicator) stands at -0.07 — down from -0.03 the prior reading. Below 0.3 means the labor market is healthy with no signal. The 0.3-0.5 zone is elevated and worth watching. At 0.50 the rule triggers, the threshold Claudia Sahm designed to flag every US recession since 1970. It crossed at 0.53 in July 2024 and peaked at 0.57 that August, and no recession followed: the first outright false positive in the modern record, which Sahm herself attributed in part to a labor-supply surge lifting unemployment without layoffs. A negative reading means the three-month average unemployment rate sits below its low of the prior 12 months. Series history runs from 1993 to present.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-09-04 · Open ↓Close ↑
Full history
Methodology & data
Sahm Rule is sourced from Sahm/FRED via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / Claudia Sahm via FRED (SAHMREALTIME), monthly). We pull the complete history, chart it on a monthly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-09-04. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator?
The Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, measures how far the 3-month average unemployment rate has risen above its lowest point in the prior 12 months. Built to be simple, real-time, and based solely on the unemployment rate, it crosses its threshold the moment a recession likely begins — without waiting on the NBER's lagged official dating.
How do you read Sahm Rule?
Below 0.3 means the labor market is healthy with no signal. The 0.3-0.5 zone is elevated and worth watching. At 0.50 the rule triggers, the threshold Claudia Sahm designed to flag every US recession since 1970. It crossed at 0.53 in July 2024 and peaked at 0.57 that August, and no recession followed: the first outright false positive in the modern record, which Sahm herself attributed in part to a labor-supply surge lifting unemployment without layoffs. A negative reading means the three-month average unemployment rate sits below its low of the prior 12 months.
Where does the Sahm Rule data come from?
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / Claudia Sahm via FRED (SAHMREALTIME), monthly. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/sahm-rule.csv.
How often is Sahm Rule updated?
Sahm Rule is a monthly series from Sahm/FRED, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.
Sahm Rule indicator
Next release: Oct 2, 2026