5-Day Losing Streak: What Happens After It Fires?
SPY closes lower five sessions in a row. Persistent day-after-day selling feels relentless when you are in it, but on a structurally rising index a five-day streak has historically marked short-term exhaustion far more often than the start of something worse.
The base rates
Since 1993, the 5-Day Losing Streak signal has fired 61 times on SPY (most recently on 2025-08-01). Six months later, SPY was higher 75% of the time (61 completed cases) with an average return of +5.8% and a median of +7.2%. Twelve months later, SPY was higher 77% of the time (60 completed cases), averaging +9.2% with a worst case of -46.1% and a best of +43.6%. Data through 2026-07-02.
Rule
Five consecutive sessions with close < previous close. Triggers on the fifth.61 occurrencesData: 1993-02-02 → 2026-07-02Cooldown: 20 trading daysLast trigger: 2025-08-01
Latest trigger2025-08-01
+19.8%
In progressSPY since this trigger: $621.72 → $744.78 (through 2026-07-02)
This trigger vs the 61-signal average
- 1w
- +2.5%
- avg +0.7%
- 1m
- +3.0%
- avg +2.1%
- 3m
- +9.3%
- avg +3.9%
- 6m
- +11.9%
- avg +5.8%
- 9m
- +15.5%
- avg +7.6%
- 12m
- —
- avg +9.2%
01
Forward returns
| Horizon | % Positive | Avg Return | Median | Best | Worst | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 67% | +0.73% | +0.63% | +7.36% | -7.68% | 61 |
| 1m | 72% | +2.09% | +2.71% | +13.02% | -16.15% | 61 |
| 3m | 70% | +3.90% | +4.08% | +17.86% | -16.43% | 61 |
| 6m | 75% | +5.75% | +7.17% | +30.44% | -18.62% | 61 |
| 9m | 75% | +7.61% | +9.14% | +43.72% | -38.26% | 61 |
| 12m | 77% | +9.18% | +12.99% | +43.58% | -46.06% | 60 |
02
Trigger history
SPY with Trigger Markers
Signal trigger · log scale · weekly closes
03
Every occurrence
| Date | SPY | 1w | 1m | 3m | 6m | 9m | 12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | $621.72 | +2.49% | +2.98% | +9.35% | +11.85% | +15.49% | — |
| 2024-04-18 | $499.52 | +0.79% | +5.99% | +9.90% | +16.58% | +20.73% | +5.55% |
| 2023-10-23 | $420.46 | -1.16% | +7.80% | +15.44% | +20.20% | +28.05% | +37.47% |
| 2022-12-07 | $393.16 | +1.59% | -1.35% | -1.84% | +9.34% | +14.06% | +17.05% |
| 2022-09-26 | $364.31 | +0.63% | +5.66% | +5.11% | +8.59% | +19.79% | +16.95% |
| 2022-07-14 | $377.91 | +5.53% | +13.02% | -5.65% | +5.04% | +9.14% | +19.30% |
| 2022-06-14 | $373.87 | +0.14% | +3.01% | +5.54% | +7.52% | +5.95% | +18.38% |
| 2022-01-10 | $465.51 | -1.94% | -1.71% | -5.50% | -18.62% | -23.15% | -15.04% |
| 2021-09-10 | $445.44 | -0.91% | -2.41% | +4.69% | -5.70% | -12.49% | -7.74% |
| 2020-10-19 | $342.01 | -0.77% | +5.44% | +12.25% | +21.65% | +27.06% | +31.76% |
| 2020-02-26 | $311.50 | +0.44% | -16.15% | -2.56% | +10.47% | +14.75% | +22.74% |
| 2019-08-02 | $292.62 | -0.34% | -0.64% | +3.66% | +10.76% | -3.09% | +12.36% |
| 2019-03-08 | $274.46 | +2.50% | +5.22% | +4.81% | +8.60% | +13.69% | -0.08% |
| 2018-12-19 | $251.26 | -1.27% | +4.62% | +11.14% | +17.01% | +18.71% | +27.72% |
| 2018-10-24 | $265.32 | +2.00% | -0.78% | -0.59% | +10.76% | +13.62% | +13.67% |
| 2018-03-16 | $274.20 | -5.89% | -1.46% | +1.07% | +6.08% | -5.01% | +2.99% |
| 2016-06-15 | $207.75 | +0.17% | +3.89% | +2.60% | +9.63% | +14.79% | +17.34% |
| 2015-09-28 | $188.01 | +5.56% | +9.89% | +9.15% | +9.58% | +8.08% | +14.66% |
| 2015-08-24 | $189.55 | +4.28% | +2.14% | +10.42% | +1.93% | +9.66% | +15.52% |
| 2015-07-27 | $206.79 | +1.45% | -9.44% | +0.35% | -8.02% | +1.03% | +4.82% |
| 2015-01-06 | $199.82 | +1.13% | +3.15% | +4.08% | +2.36% | -1.02% | -0.50% |
| 2013-12-05 | $178.94 | -0.45% | +2.54% | +5.15% | +9.30% | +12.10% | +16.24% |
| 2013-09-25 | $169.04 | +0.08% | +3.61% | +8.23% | +9.19% | +15.62% | +16.15% |
| 2012-12-28 | $140.03 | +4.24% | +7.17% | +11.99% | +15.23% | +19.98% | +31.27% |
| 2012-05-17 | $130.86 | +1.28% | +2.71% | +8.51% | +4.21% | +15.65% | +27.75% |
| 2012-04-10 | $135.90 | +2.34% | -0.12% | -1.30% | +7.17% | +8.23% | +16.85% |
| 2011-11-22 | $119.19 | +4.87% | +5.10% | +14.88% | +11.19% | +18.02% | +18.34% |
| 2011-07-29 | $129.33 | -7.15% | -6.16% | -0.62% | +1.58% | +8.15% | +7.23% |
| 2011-06-07 | $128.96 | +0.28% | +4.96% | -9.28% | -2.12% | +5.22% | +2.33% |
| 2011-04-13 | $131.46 | +1.25% | +1.96% | -0.40% | -8.15% | -1.48% | +4.32% |
| 2010-08-16 | $108.26 | -1.05% | +4.45% | +11.03% | +23.25% | +23.03% | +11.42% |
| 2010-06-24 | $107.42 | -4.34% | +3.85% | +4.73% | +17.09% | +21.86% | +19.44% |
| 2009-02-20 | $77.42 | -4.51% | +6.20% | +15.23% | +30.44% | +43.72% | +43.58% |
| 2008-12-23 | $86.16 | +4.74% | -2.88% | -3.54% | +6.87% | +21.88% | +29.93% |
| 2008-10-08 | $97.51 | -7.68% | -6.82% | -6.64% | -12.00% | -9.79% | +9.33% |
| 2008-03-04 | $132.99 | -0.29% | +3.05% | +3.83% | -3.76% | -38.26% | -46.06% |
| 2008-01-03 | $144.86 | -2.46% | -4.90% | -5.50% | -12.81% | -22.79% | -35.83% |
| 2007-02-27 | $139.50 | +0.14% | +1.66% | +9.13% | +5.34% | +1.04% | -0.92% |
| 2006-11-02 | $136.78 | +1.02% | +3.30% | +5.93% | +10.21% | +8.03% | +9.70% |
| 2006-06-09 | $125.35 | -0.56% | +1.64% | +3.93% | +12.61% | +10.29% | +19.39% |
| 2005-01-05 | $118.01 | +0.47% | +1.88% | +1.04% | +1.64% | +1.37% | +7.94% |
| 2004-02-24 | $114.39 | +0.95% | -4.23% | -3.60% | -3.53% | +3.14% | +4.42% |
| 2003-01-22 | $88.17 | -1.92% | -3.39% | +4.55% | +12.56% | +18.93% | +30.20% |
| 2002-09-23 | $83.66 | -2.24% | +7.00% | +7.57% | +4.61% | +17.76% | +23.05% |
| 2002-02-07 | $108.02 | +3.74% | +8.54% | -0.25% | -15.80% | -13.87% | -22.77% |
| 2001-09-21 | $97.28 | +7.36% | +12.53% | +17.86% | +16.79% | +2.59% | -14.00% |
| 2001-06-14 | $122.00 | +1.49% | -1.06% | -16.43% | -5.75% | -5.50% | -17.04% |
| 2000-11-13 | $135.56 | -0.64% | +0.42% | -2.58% | -4.88% | -12.78% | -14.60% |
| 2000-10-12 | $133.13 | +4.64% | +2.63% | -0.85% | -11.67% | -9.33% | -19.31% |
| 2000-05-23 | $138.00 | +3.49% | +5.53% | +8.88% | -2.40% | -8.83% | -6.34% |
| 2000-04-14 | $135.50 | +4.98% | +8.26% | +11.44% | +1.52% | -1.96% | -11.99% |
| 1999-09-24 | $127.75 | +0.56% | +1.32% | +14.66% | +20.20% | +13.02% | +13.63% |
| 1999-06-14 | $129.72 | +3.79% | +8.05% | +4.03% | +9.37% | +6.84% | +11.69% |
| 1999-04-19 | $129.50 | +5.47% | +3.43% | +8.79% | -3.57% | +13.49% | +4.63% |
| 1998-07-24 | $114.09 | -2.02% | -4.24% | -5.15% | +8.52% | +19.72% | +18.11% |
| 1996-04-11 | $62.93 | +2.30% | +3.89% | +2.54% | +10.76% | +19.67% | +20.42% |
| 1996-02-20 | $64.31 | +0.76% | +1.29% | +5.19% | +3.92% | +14.97% | +27.32% |
| 1995-08-03 | $55.93 | +0.09% | +1.31% | +4.61% | +14.29% | +15.18% | +16.72% |
| 1994-05-09 | $44.37 | +0.38% | +3.20% | +3.45% | +4.42% | +8.72% | +18.48% |
| 1993-06-08 | $44.73 | +0.69% | +0.27% | +2.97% | +4.81% | +4.94% | +3.22% |
| 1993-04-06 | $44.19 | +1.70% | +0.59% | +0.34% | +4.48% | +5.61% | +1.40% |
Forward returns are computed from SPY closing prices. Cells showing “—” indicate the horizon has not yet elapsed for that trigger. Small samples from a generally rising market — base rates are evidence, not forecasts.