Are investors too bullish?
Sentiment is hard to measure directly, so this page reads seven places where it shows up in behaviour: the Fear & Greed Index, how much leveraged ETF trading goes to bull funds, money moving into or out of cash ETFs, margin debt, the VIX against its own recent average, how stretched the S&P 500 is above its 50-day average, and how junk bonds trade against investment grade.
Exuberant when greed gauges outnumber fear ones by 3 or more; fearful when fear ones lead by 3 or more; neutral in between.
Latest read
Neutral. On October 7, 2026, 2 of the 7 gauges read greed and 1 read fear, with SPY 0.2% below its record. 2 or more gauges have read greed on 39% of sessions since March 2017. After neutral verdicts, SPY's median return over the next quarter was +3.8%, against +4.3% for every day since March 2017.
Sources, methodology & freshnessThe site's tools: Fear & Greed Index, Leveraged ETF trading in bull funds, Flows into cash ETFs, Margin debt, change over a year and more · Daily after the US market close.Data as of 2026-10-07 · Open ↓Close ↑
The 7 gauges
Reading greed: Margin debt, change over a year; High yield vs investment grade. Reading fear: Flows into cash ETFs. Reading neutral: Fear & Greed Index; Leveraged ETF trading in bull funds; VIX against its 50-day average; S&P 500 against its 50-day average. Each rule was fixed on round numbers near the gauge’s quartiles before any forward result was examined.
| Gauge | Reading | Rank since 2017 | Greed if | Fear if | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index | 42 | 36th pctile | ≥ 75 (greed) | ≤ 25 (fear) | neutral |
| Leveraged ETF trading in bull funds (20-day) | 71.2% | 69th pctile | ≥ 72% | ≤ 55% | neutral |
| Flows into cash ETFs (13-week z-score) | +1.95 | 86th pctile | ≤ −1 (leaving cash) | ≥ +1.5 (into cash) | fear |
| Margin debt, change over a year | +37.2% | 85th pctile | ≥ +25% | ≤ −10% | greed |
| VIX against its 50-day average | −3.7% | 51st pctile | ≥ 15% below | ≥ 25% above | neutral |
| S&P 500 against its 50-day average | +1.5% | 43rd pctile | ≥ 4% above | ≥ 4% below | neutral |
| High yield vs investment grade (HYG ÷ LQD, 1-year z-score) | +2.16 | 92nd pctile | ≥ +1.5 | ≤ −1.5 | greed |
The verdict every day since 2017
The line is greed gauges minus fear ones, from +7 to −7; the shaded bands are the exuberant and fearful verdicts. Since March 2017 the verdict has been exuberant on 12% of sessions, neutral on 78% and fearful on 10%.
How unusual is today's reading?
2 or more gauges have read greed on 39% of sessions since March 2017.
What followed
Sentiment is a contrary indicator at extremes, and it is a weak one. Fearful verdicts have been followed by better returns than average; exuberant ones have not reliably been followed by worse. The Fear & Greed Index already blends several of these inputs, so read the count as a cross-check on it. After neutral verdicts, SPY's median return over the next quarter was +3.8%, against +4.3% for every day since March 2017.
| Condition | Sessions | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every day | 2,413 | +1.7%69% up | +4.3%76% up | +14.5%84% up |
| Exuberant verdict | 285 | +1.5%73% up | +5.3%84% up | +15.2%85% up |
| Neutral verdict | 1,884 | +1.7%68% up | +3.8%74% up | +13.8%82% up |
| Fearful verdict | 244 | +4.0%69% up | +6.6%82% up | +19.0%96% up |
| First exuberant verdict, first day | Count | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 5, 2018 | 3 of 7 | −1.6% | −4.5% | −6.1% |
| August 8, 2018 | 3 of 7 | +0.7% | −3.6% | +2.2% |
| February 22, 2019 | 3 of 7 | 0.0% | +1.1% | +15.5% |
| October 17, 2019 | 3 of 7 | +4.2% | +10.9% | +16.0% |
| June 3, 2020 | 3 of 7 | 0.0% | +12.9% | +34.1% |
| October 19, 2021 | 3 of 7 | +3.9% | +0.2% | −18.2% |
| June 2, 2023 | 3 of 7 | +3.6% | +5.4% | +23.5% |
| January 26, 2024 | 3 of 7 | +4.0% | +4.3% | +23.5% |
| November 6, 2024 | 3 of 7 | +2.8% | +2.3% | +15.3% |
| July 1, 2025 | 3 of 7 | +2.3% | +7.9% | +20.6% |
| April 17, 2026 | 4 of 7 | +4.0% | +4.5% | open |
Exuberant when greed gauges outnumber fear ones by 3 or more; fearful when fear ones lead by 3 or more; neutral in between.
How the Sentiment Verdict Works
- 1Read 7 gaugesEach row comes from one of the site's tools and links to it: Fear & Greed Index; Leveraged ETF trading in bull funds (20-day); Flows into cash ETFs (13-week z-score); Margin debt, change over a year; VIX against its 50-day average; S&P 500 against its 50-day average; High yield vs investment grade (HYG ÷ LQD, 1-year z-score).
- 2Give each one a state from a fixed ruleEvery gauge reads greed, neutral or fear by a rule printed beside it. The rules were set on round numbers near each gauge's quartiles before any forward result was examined.
- 3Count, do not blendThe verdict is a count of greed and fear gauges, never a weighted score, so every part of it can be checked against its own page.
- 4Replay it and test itThe same scoring runs on every session since March 2017, so the chart and today's verdict cannot disagree, and what followed each verdict is compared with every day in the window.