Is this a bull market or a bear market?
The textbook line, a 20% fall from the high, only says a bear market has already happened. This page reads eight trend gauges instead: where the S&P 500, the Nasdaq-100 and the equal-weight index sit against their 200-day averages, which way those averages point, the year’s return, the distance from the record and how many stocks are in uptrends.
Bull market when bullish gauges outnumber bearish ones by 3 or more; bear market when bearish ones lead by 3 or more; unclear in between.
Latest read
Bull market. On October 7, 2026, 7 of the 8 gauges read bullish and 1 read bearish, with SPY 0.2% below its record. 7 or more gauges have read bullish on 56% of sessions since January 2011. After bull market verdicts, SPY's median return over the next quarter was +3.5%, against +3.8% for every day since January 2011.
Sources, methodology & freshnessThe site's tools: S&P 500, 50-day average against the 200-day, Direction of SPY's 200-day average, S&P 500 distance from its record and more · Daily after the US market close.Data as of 2026-10-07 · Open ↓Close ↑
The 8 gauges
Reading bullish: S&P 500; 50-day average against the 200-day; Direction of SPY's 200-day average; S&P 500 distance from its record; S&P 500 return over 12 months; Nasdaq-100; Equal-weight S&P 500. Reading bearish: US stocks above their 200-day average. Each rule was fixed on round numbers near the gauge’s quartiles before any forward result was examined.
| Gauge | Reading | Rank since 2011 | Bullish if | Bearish if | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) against its 200-day average | +7.6% | 68th pctile | ≥ 2% above | ≥ 2% below | bullish |
| 50-day average against the 200-day (SPY) | +6.1% | 71st pctile | ≥ 1% above | ≥ 1% below | bullish |
| Direction of SPY's 200-day average (20 sessions) | +1.24% | 59th pctile | rising ≥ 0.5% | falling | bullish |
| S&P 500 distance from its record | −0.2% | 82nd pctile | within 5% | 10% or more below | bullish |
| S&P 500 return over 12 months | +15.7% | 60th pctile | ≥ +10% | ≤ 0 | bullish |
| Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) against its 200-day average | +12.9% | 82nd pctile | ≥ 2% above | ≥ 2% below | bullish |
| Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) against its 200-day average | +2.2% | 30th pctile | ≥ 2% above | ≥ 2% below | bullish |
| US stocks above their 200-day average | 37.8% | 19th pctile | ≥ 60% | ≤ 40% | bearish |
The verdict every day since 2011
The line is bullish gauges minus bearish ones, from +8 to −8; the shaded bands are the bull market and bear market verdicts. Since January 2011 the verdict has been bull market on 75% of sessions, unclear on 11% and bear market on 14%.
How unusual is today's reading?
7 or more gauges have read bullish on 56% of sessions since January 2011.
What followed
The verdict describes the trend, not what comes next. Bear-market verdicts usually arrive after much of a decline has happened, so returns afterwards have often been better than average. After bull market verdicts, SPY's median return over the next quarter was +3.5%, against +3.8% for every day since January 2011.
| Condition | Sessions | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every day | 3,964 | +1.5%67% up | +3.8%75% up | +14.2%86% up |
| Bull market verdict | 2,970 | +1.4%68% up | +3.5%75% up | +13.2%84% up |
| Unclear verdict | 443 | +1.3%63% up | +4.8%73% up | +16.3%87% up |
| Bear market verdict | 551 | +3.4%70% up | +6.5%79% up | +17.6%96% up |
| First bear-market verdict, first day | Count | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 4, 2011 | 5 of 8 | −2.0% | +3.1% | +15.9% |
| August 21, 2015 | 5 of 8 | −1.9% | +5.5% | +10.6% |
| October 24, 2018 | 4 of 8 | −0.8% | −0.6% | +13.7% |
| March 9, 2020 | 6 of 8 | −3.3% | +17.9% | +41.2% |
| February 23, 2022 | 5 of 8 | +6.8% | −6.7% | −6.1% |
| March 13, 2025 | 5 of 8 | −3.2% | +9.5% | +21.3% |
Bull market when bullish gauges outnumber bearish ones by 3 or more; bear market when bearish ones lead by 3 or more; unclear in between.
How the Trend Verdict Works
- 1Read 8 gaugesEach row comes from one of the site's tools and links to it: S&P 500 (SPY) against its 200-day average; 50-day average against the 200-day (SPY); Direction of SPY's 200-day average (20 sessions); S&P 500 distance from its record; S&P 500 return over 12 months; Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) against its 200-day average; Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) against its 200-day average; US stocks above their 200-day average.
- 2Give each one a state from a fixed ruleEvery gauge reads bullish, neutral or bearish by a rule printed beside it. The rules were set on round numbers near each gauge's quartiles before any forward result was examined.
- 3Count, do not blendThe verdict is a count of bullish and bearish gauges, never a weighted score, so every part of it can be checked against its own page.
- 4Replay it and test itThe same scoring runs on every session since January 2011, so the chart and today's verdict cannot disagree, and what followed each verdict is compared with every day in the window.