Are small caps confirming the S&P 500?
When the S&P 500 rises, traders watch whether smaller companies rise with it. This page reads seven gauges: small caps (IWM) and mid caps (MDY) against the S&P 500 over three months and a year, small caps against their own trend, and how far they sit below their high compared with the S&P 500.
Confirming when confirming gauges outnumber lagging ones by 3 or more; not confirming when lagging ones lead by 3 or more; mixed in between.
Latest read
Mixed. On October 7, 2026, 1 of the 7 gauges read confirming and 3 read lagging, with SPY 0.2% below its record. 3 or more gauges have read lagging on 26% of sessions since January 2011. Before September 21, 2026, the most lagging gauges with SPY within 2% of its record was 6, in December 2021. After mixed verdicts, SPY's median return over the next quarter was +3.8%, against +3.8% for every day since January 2011.
Sources, methodology & freshnessThe site's tools: Small caps vs S&P 500, 3 months, Small caps vs S&P 500, 12 months, Small caps, Small caps' 50-day against their 200-day average and more · Daily after the US market close.Data as of 2026-10-07 · Open ↓Close ↑
The 7 gauges
Reading confirming: Small caps' 50-day against their 200-day average. Reading lagging: Small caps vs S&P 500, 3 months; Small caps' distance from high minus SPY's; Mid caps vs S&P 500, 3 months. Reading mixed: Small caps vs S&P 500, 12 months; Small caps; Small caps' distance from their 52-week high. Each rule was fixed on round numbers near the gauge’s quartiles before any forward result was examined.
| Gauge | Reading | Rank since 2011 | Confirming if | Lagging if | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small caps vs S&P 500, 3 months (IWM ÷ SPY) | −9.6% | 3rd pctile | ≥ +1% | ≤ −3% | lagging |
| Small caps vs S&P 500, 12 months (IWM ÷ SPY) | −2.8% | 52nd pctile | ≥ 0 | ≤ −10% | mixed |
| Small caps (IWM) against their 200-day average | +0.3% | 30th pctile | ≥ 2% above | ≥ 2% below | mixed |
| Small caps' 50-day against their 200-day average | +5.4% | 65th pctile | ≥ 1% above | ≥ 1% below | confirming |
| Small caps' distance from their 52-week high | −9.0% | 32nd pctile | within 5% | 12% or more below | mixed |
| Small caps' distance from high minus SPY's | −8.7 pts | 12th pctile | ≥ −3 pts | ≤ −8 pts | lagging |
| Mid caps vs S&P 500, 3 months (MDY ÷ SPY) | −7.0% | 3rd pctile | ≥ 0 | ≤ −3% | lagging |
The verdict every day since 2011
The line is confirming gauges minus lagging ones, from +7 to −7; the shaded bands are the confirming and not confirming verdicts. Since January 2011 the verdict has been confirming on 54% of sessions, mixed on 27% and not confirming on 19%.
How unusual is today's reading?
3 or more gauges have read lagging on 26% of sessions since January 2011. Before September 21, 2026, the most lagging gauges with SPY within 2% of its record was 6, in December 2021.
What followed
Small caps lagging the S&P 500 has been common for most of the last decade, so a lagging verdict alone has not meant much. The setup worth watching is small caps lagging with the S&P 500 at or near its record, which is rarer and has been followed by weaker months. After mixed verdicts, SPY's median return over the next quarter was +3.8%, against +3.8% for every day since January 2011.
| Condition | Sessions | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every day | 3,964 | +1.5%67% up | +3.8%75% up | +14.2%86% up |
| Confirming verdict | 2,121 | +1.4%69% up | +3.4%76% up | +13.5%86% up |
| Mixed verdict | 1,082 | +1.6%63% up | +3.8%75% up | +13.8%86% up |
| Not confirming verdict | 761 | +2.7%68% up | +6.3%76% up | +18.1%86% up |
| Not confirming, SPY within 2% of its record | 56 | +0.5%52% up | +2.3%64% up | +6.2%75% up |
| Not confirming with SPY within 2% of its record, first day | Count | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 23, 2014 | 4 of 7 | −2.7% | +4.8% | −2.2% |
| November 2, 2015 | 3 of 7 | −0.9% | −9.1% | +0.3% |
| June 10, 2019 | 4 of 7 | +3.3% | +3.2% | +11.0% |
| December 13, 2021 | 4 of 7 | +1.0% | −8.7% | −13.8% |
| June 12, 2025 | 3 of 7 | +3.0% | +8.9% | +25.0% |
Confirming when confirming gauges outnumber lagging ones by 3 or more; not confirming when lagging ones lead by 3 or more; mixed in between.
How the Breadth Verdict Works
- 1Read 7 gaugesEach row comes from one of the site's tools and links to it: Small caps vs S&P 500, 3 months (IWM ÷ SPY); Small caps vs S&P 500, 12 months (IWM ÷ SPY); Small caps (IWM) against their 200-day average; Small caps' 50-day against their 200-day average; Small caps' distance from their 52-week high; Small caps' distance from high minus SPY's; Mid caps vs S&P 500, 3 months (MDY ÷ SPY).
- 2Give each one a state from a fixed ruleEvery gauge reads confirming, mixed or lagging by a rule printed beside it. The rules were set on round numbers near each gauge's quartiles before any forward result was examined.
- 3Count, do not blendThe verdict is a count of confirming and lagging gauges, never a weighted score, so every part of it can be checked against its own page.
- 4Replay it and test itThe same scoring runs on every session since January 2011, so the chart and today's verdict cannot disagree, and what followed each verdict is compared with every day in the window.