Is the rally broad?
A broad rally lifts most stocks; a narrow one rises on a few large companies while the rest lag or fall. No single chart settles it, so this page reads eight breadth gauges from the site’s tools, gives each a state by a rule printed beside it, and counts them into one verdict.
Broad when broad gauges outnumber narrow ones by 3 or more; narrow when narrow ones lead by 3 or more; mixed in between.
Latest read
Narrow. On October 7, 2026, 0 of the 8 gauges read broad and 8 read narrow, with SPY 0.2% below its record. All 8 gauges have read narrow on 38 sessions since April 2017, in 3 separate stretches. Before September 21, 2026, the most narrow gauges with SPY within 2% of its record was 6, in December 2024. After narrow verdicts, SPY's median return over the next quarter was +5.2%, against +4.3% for every day since April 2017.
Sources, methodology & freshnessThe site's tools: NYSE McClellan Summation Index, US stocks above their 50-day average, US stocks above their 200-day average, Bullish Percent Index and more · Daily after the US market close.Data as of 2026-10-07 · Open ↓Close ↑
The 8 gauges
Reading narrow: NYSE McClellan Summation Index; US stocks above their 50-day average; US stocks above their 200-day average; Bullish Percent Index; New highs minus new lows; NYSE advance-decline line; Equal weight vs cap weight, 3 months; Equal-weight drawdown minus SPY's. Each rule was fixed on round numbers near the gauge’s quartiles before any forward result was examined.
| Gauge | Reading | Rank since 2017 | Broad if | Narrow if | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE McClellan Summation Index | −761 | 3rd pctile | ≥ +250 | ≤ −250 | narrow |
| US stocks above their 50-day average | 24.5% | 9th pctile | ≥ 60% | ≤ 40% | narrow |
| US stocks above their 200-day average | 37.8% | 22nd pctile | ≥ 60% | ≤ 40% | narrow |
| Bullish Percent Index | 26.6% | 6th pctile | ≥ 60% | ≤ 40% | narrow |
| New highs minus new lows (10-day average, % of issues) | −5.9% | 7th pctile | ≥ +2% | below 0 | narrow |
| NYSE advance-decline line | -9.1% from 52-week high | — | a 52-week high in the last month | below its 50-day average | narrow |
| Equal weight vs cap weight, 3 months (RSP ÷ SPY) | −4.6% | 9th pctile | ≥ +1% | ≤ −2% | narrow |
| Equal-weight drawdown minus SPY's | −5.2 pts | 4th pctile | ≥ −1 pt | ≤ −3 pts | narrow |
The verdict every day since 2017
The line is broad gauges minus narrow ones, from +8 to −8; the shaded bands are the broad and narrow verdicts. Since April 2017 the verdict has been broad on 49% of sessions, mixed on 30% and narrow on 21%.
How unusual is today's reading?
All 8 gauges have read narrow on 38 sessions since April 2017, in 3 separate stretches. They began in March 2020 (SPY 20.4% below its high), October 2023 (SPY 10.6% below its high) and September 2026 (SPY 1.6% below its high). Before September 21, 2026, the most narrow gauges with SPY within 2% of its record was 6, in December 2024.
What followed
A narrow verdict on its own has not been a bad sign: most narrow days come during selloffs, when nothing is rising. The setup that has been weaker is a narrow verdict with the S&P 500 near its record, and those days cluster into only a handful of episodes. After narrow verdicts, SPY's median return over the next quarter was +5.2%, against +4.3% for every day since April 2017.
| Condition | Sessions | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every day | 2,376 | +1.8%69% up | +4.3%76% up | +14.6%84% up |
| Broad verdict | 1,169 | +1.6%70% up | +4.1%78% up | +13.5%84% up |
| Mixed verdict | 700 | +2.1%70% up | +4.3%74% up | +14.6%81% up |
| Narrow verdict | 507 | +2.3%64% up | +5.2%74% up | +18.3%86% up |
| Narrow, SPY within 2% of its record | 48 | −0.1%50% up | +2.3%65% up | +12.7%80% up |
| Narrow verdict with SPY within 2% of its record, first day | Count | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 22, 2017 | 3 of 8 | +1.6% | +5.2% | +16.6% |
| December 14, 2021 | 5 of 8 | +0.3% | −6.0% | −13.8% |
| June 14, 2024 | 4 of 8 | +2.6% | +3.7% | +10.1% |
| December 24, 2024 | 6 of 8 | +0.5% | −7.6% | +14.4% |
| November 3, 2025 | 3 of 8 | +0.1% | +0.4% | open |
| September 17, 2026 | 5 of 8 | open | open | open |
Broad when broad gauges outnumber narrow ones by 3 or more; narrow when narrow ones lead by 3 or more; mixed in between.
How the Breadth Verdict Works
- 1Read 8 gaugesEach row comes from one of the site's tools and links to it: NYSE McClellan Summation Index; US stocks above their 50-day average; US stocks above their 200-day average; Bullish Percent Index; New highs minus new lows (10-day average, % of issues); NYSE advance-decline line; Equal weight vs cap weight, 3 months (RSP ÷ SPY); Equal-weight drawdown minus SPY's.
- 2Give each one a state from a fixed ruleEvery gauge reads broad, mixed or narrow by a rule printed beside it. The rules were set on round numbers near each gauge's quartiles before any forward result was examined.
- 3Count, do not blendThe verdict is a count of broad and narrow gauges, never a weighted score, so every part of it can be checked against its own page.
- 4Replay it and test itThe same scoring runs on every session since April 2017, so the chart and today's verdict cannot disagree, and what followed each verdict is compared with every day in the window.