Is market risk elevated?
Market risk shows up in several places at once: the VIX and its term structure, how much the index actually moves, how credit trades against Treasuries, and how far the market sits below its high. This page reads six of them, each against a fixed rule, and counts how many are calm and how many are under stress.
Low when calm gauges outnumber stress ones by 3 or more; elevated when stress ones lead by 3 or more; normal in between.
Latest read
Low. On October 7, 2026, 5 of the 6 gauges read calm and 0 read stress, with SPY 0.2% below its record. 5 or more gauges have read calm on 28% of sessions since April 2010. After low verdicts, SPY's median return over the next quarter was +3.2%, against +3.9% for every day since April 2010.
Sources, methodology & freshnessThe site's tools: VIX, VIX ÷ three-month VIX, S&P 500 realized volatility, 21 days, Sessions with a 1% move, last 21 and more · Daily after the US market close.Data as of 2026-10-07 · Open ↓Close ↑
The 6 gauges
Reading calm: VIX ÷ three-month VIX; S&P 500 realized volatility, 21 days; Sessions with a 1% move, last 21; High yield vs Treasuries, 3 months; S&P 500 distance from its record. Reading watch: VIX. Each rule was fixed on round numbers near the gauge’s quartiles before any forward result was examined.
| Gauge | Reading | Rank since 2010 | Calm if | Stress if | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.1 | 36th pctile | ≤ 15 | ≥ 25 | watch |
| VIX ÷ three-month VIX (term structure) | 0.85 | 30th pctile | ≤ 0.90 | ≥ 1.00 (inverted) | calm |
| S&P 500 realized volatility, 21 days (annualized) | 10.2% | 32nd pctile | ≤ 12% | ≥ 25% | calm |
| Sessions with a 1% move, last 21 | 2 | 32nd pctile | 3 or fewer | 10 or more | calm |
| High yield vs Treasuries, 3 months (HYG ÷ IEF) | +1.8% | 70th pctile | ≥ +1% | ≤ −3% | calm |
| S&P 500 distance from its record | −0.2% | 82nd pctile | within 5% | 10% or more below | calm |
The verdict every day since 2010
The line is calm gauges minus stress ones, from +6 to −6; the shaded bands are the low and elevated verdicts. Since April 2010 the verdict has been low on 52% of sessions, normal on 37% and elevated on 11%.
How unusual is today's reading?
5 or more gauges have read calm on 28% of sessions since April 2010.
What followed
An elevated verdict means stress is present now, not that a fall is coming. It usually arrives during a selloff, and because volatility fades, returns after elevated readings have often been better than average. A low verdict means calm, which can last for a long time. After low verdicts, SPY's median return over the next quarter was +3.2%, against +3.9% for every day since April 2010.
| Condition | Sessions | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every day | 4,153 | +1.6%67% up | +3.9%76% up | +14.0%86% up |
| Low verdict | 2,168 | +1.2%66% up | +3.2%75% up | +13.2%84% up |
| Normal verdict | 1,549 | +2.1%68% up | +5.0%75% up | +13.9%86% up |
| Elevated verdict | 436 | +3.7%71% up | +7.5%83% up | +19.4%95% up |
| First elevated-risk verdict, first day | Count | Next month | Next quarter | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2010 | 3 of 6 | −6.6% | −0.1% | +18.3% |
| March 16, 2011 | 3 of 6 | +4.3% | +0.7% | +11.5% |
| June 1, 2012 | 3 of 6 | +6.5% | +9.6% | +25.8% |
| October 15, 2014 | 3 of 6 | +9.5% | +6.8% | +8.5% |
| August 21, 2015 | 3 of 6 | −1.9% | +5.5% | +10.6% |
| January 7, 2016 | 3 of 6 | −4.4% | +5.4% | +17.1% |
| March 1, 2018 | 3 of 6 | −3.8% | +1.2% | +4.4% |
| November 20, 2018 | 3 of 6 | −8.9% | +5.8% | +17.5% |
| February 26, 2020 | 3 of 6 | −16.1% | −2.6% | +22.7% |
| November 2, 2020 | 3 of 6 | +11.1% | +15.6% | +39.9% |
| February 22, 2022 | 3 of 6 | +3.3% | −7.6% | −6.7% |
| March 15, 2023 | 3 of 6 | +6.0% | +12.3% | +31.0% |
| August 5, 2024 | 3 of 6 | +6.5% | +10.4% | +22.2% |
| March 13, 2025 | 3 of 6 | −3.2% | +9.5% | +21.3% |
Low when calm gauges outnumber stress ones by 3 or more; elevated when stress ones lead by 3 or more; normal in between.
How the Risk Verdict Works
- 1Read 6 gaugesEach row comes from one of the site's tools and links to it: VIX; VIX ÷ three-month VIX (term structure); S&P 500 realized volatility, 21 days (annualized); Sessions with a 1% move, last 21; High yield vs Treasuries, 3 months (HYG ÷ IEF); S&P 500 distance from its record.
- 2Give each one a state from a fixed ruleEvery gauge reads calm, watch or stress by a rule printed beside it. The rules were set on round numbers near each gauge's quartiles before any forward result was examined.
- 3Count, do not blendThe verdict is a count of calm and stress gauges, never a weighted score, so every part of it can be checked against its own page.
- 4Replay it and test itThe same scoring runs on every session since April 2010, so the chart and today's verdict cannot disagree, and what followed each verdict is compared with every day in the window.