Every study, in order.

The S&P 500 Set a Record With More NYSE Lows Than Highs. The Lows Are Where Rising Yields Hurt

S&P 500 record on Oct 6, 2026 with 69 NYSE lows vs 37 highs. 47 were income funds and REITs; stock lows were led by utilities and consumer names.

Commodities & Miners

The Diesel Crack Spread Is at a Record. What Happens to Stocks Next?

The diesel crack is at a record. After 9 spikes since 1989, the S&P 500 had a weak first year; from six months in, the next year was close to normal.

Commodities & Miners

Gold Is Down 23% From Its Record. Buying Opportunity or a Deeper Decline?

Gold is 23% below its record. Since 2004, three 20% declines recovered within 18 months; one became the 2013 bear market. The case for each, measured.

Cycles & Seasonality

Stocks Rose in the Year After Every Midterm Since 1950. What the Streak Leaves Out

The S&P 500 rose in the year after all 19 midterms since 1950, by 16.6% on average. Before 1950 it fell twice, and years starting near a high did less.

7 min read

September 2026

8 studies

Volatility & Risk

43 Sessions Without a 1% Drop: Is the S&P 500's Calm a Warning?

43 sessions without a 1% drop. Since 1929, long calms that broke near a high led to a 10% decline 8% of the time, against 11% for other 1% drops there.

Is This Another 2000? The Profits Holding Up This Market, and What Could Break Them

Today vs the 2000 top: profits are growing and broader than the headlines, but valuation rests on a record profit share. What could break it, measured.

13 min read

The Stock Market Has Looked Like This Three Times Since 1927

S&P 500 near a record with 26% of stocks above their 50-day: since 1927 that setup came before the 1973 and 2000 tops, and 2023. Most tops were broad.

Sectors & Rotation

Financials Are 6% Below Their High With the S&P 500 Near a Record. Is That a Warning?

XLF is 6% below its high with SPY near a record. Prior episodes returned 2.57% over a quarter versus 2.65% for the baseline. See every case and the limits.

Nasdaq-100 Record High, Weak Breadth: What Eight Previous Episodes Show

QQQ set a record on Sep 22, 2026 with 37% of Nasdaq stocks on buy signals, more new lows than highs and 47 of 100 members above their 50-day. 8 prior cases.

Bullish Percent Index Near Oversold With SPY Near a Record: Seven Previous Cases

BPI at 30.6%, just above the oversold line of 30, with SPY 2% from a record. No dependable edge: seven prior cases look weak, five spaced ones ordinary.

12 min read

Rates & Debt

What Rising Bond Yields Mean for the US Budget, the Economy and the Dollar

As of Sep 14, US 10-year yields rose 91 bp since March. The refinancing bill, limits of Fed cuts, and what higher yields mean for the economy and dollar.

13 min read

Volatility & Risk

Why Is the Stock Market So Calm? What Low Volatility Meant Before

SPY's daily range is at its 5th percentile since 1993, yet the VIX sits at its 58th. Prior calm spells brought ordinary returns and ended within 58 sessions.

August 2026

9 studies

Market Review

August 2026 Market Review: Stocks Rose, Metals Surged, and the Economy Split

August 2026 review: stocks rose, breadth narrowed, metals and crypto surged, business accelerated, and household and energy strains deepened.

15 min read

The Bull Case for the Nasdaq-100: Why the AI Boom Hasn't Cracked Yet

AI capex more than doubled, yet Nasdaq-100 revenue, operating profit and free cash flow still rose. The fundamental stress test says no crack yet.

13 min read

Corporate Profit Margins Are Near a Record While Consumer Sentiment Is at a Record Low

Nonfinancial corporate margins rose to 15.2%, third-highest since 1947, while consumer sentiment set a 47-year low. What drove the gap and what stocks did next.

13F Filings, Q2 2026: Alphabet, Amazon and TSM Lead a Four-Quarter Accumulation Screen

Across 18 comparable Q2 13F filings, Alphabet led current buying while TSM and Amazon showed the strongest multi-quarter accumulation.

18 min read

Sectors & Rotation

Why Energy Stocks Are at a Record While Oil Is Down 31% From Its High — and What Happened Last Time

XLE at a 28-year record with Brent 31% below its April high. Refiners did the work on a 99.9th-percentile crack spread. The last time, November 2022, the margin halved and XLE lost 12%.

Housing

Is the Housing Market Going to Crash? What the 2026 Data Actually Shows

Existing-home sales at 4.06M, a 2010-trough pace; prices +1% nominal, −2.8% real; owners at 72% equity, delinquency 1.9%. Frozen and slowly deflating, not 2008.

Commodities & Miners

Copper Is at a Record High. The Best Copper Stocks for the Run, Ranked by 15 Years of Data

Copper hit a record $13,552/tonne. We ranked all 1,901 US-listed $2B+ stocks by 15 years of copper correlation: the top miners, the diversified route, the indirect plays — and what the 2011 bust did to each.

12 min read

Sectors & Rotation

Why Are Utility Stocks Falling While the Market Sets Records? It Isn’t Rates This Time

WEC fell 11 straight sessions and every large utility dropped 3–10% while SPY set records — and the 10-year barely moved. What 43 long utility streaks since 2010 did next.

Why Is Only Tech Going Up? What 13 Similar Rallies Actually Predicted

Tech beat energy by 10.6 points in five sessions, but most sectors rose. After 12 similar rallies near highs, SPY’s next quarter matched its baseline.

July 2026

2 studies

Jul

Nearly Half of Nasdaq-100 Stocks Are in a Bear Market. The Index Is 3% From a Record

45 of 101 Nasdaq-100 members are 20%+ below their own highs while QQQ sits 3.5% from a record. This shape has 22 precedents in 15 years — 20 of them this year.

Jul

Volatility & Risk

Why Are Tech Stocks So Volatile Right Now? The Tech-Vol Spread Is the Widest Since 2003

The VXN−VIX spread hit 11.1 pts — its widest since 2003, a level seen only in the dot-com unwind — while VIX sits at a calm 16.6. What followed similar readings.

June 2026

6 studies

Rates & the Fed

Is the Fed Cornered? Inflation Hit 4.1% — and the Chair Trump Hired to Cut Is Signaling Hikes

Headline PCE hit 4.1% and the real fed funds rate just went negative (−0.4%). Trump hired Warsh to cut; his Fed is signaling hikes. Is the Fed cornered? Mostly — here’s the nuance.

The Consumer

Is the US Consumer Healthy? Sentiment Just Hit a Record Low — and Spending Keeps Rising

US sentiment hit a record low, yet real spending is up 2.1% and delinquencies are falling. The risk is thin savings, not vibes.

Cash on the Sidelines: $8 Trillion Sits in Money Market Funds. Will It Flow Into Stocks?

A record $8 trillion sits in money market funds, $2.25T of it retail. Will it fuel stocks? The data says it depends on one thing — and it isn’t the cash.

Hedge Funds Are Record-Short S&P 500 Futures. Why It Isn’t Bearish

Leveraged funds hold a record net short in S&P 500 futures, yet the index is at all-time highs. Why the basis trade — not bearishness — explains it, with our own data.

Household Equity Allocation Hit a Record. What It Means for Future Stock Returns

Household equity allocation reached 45.8% after a record 47.1% — above the 2000 peak. Why it points to lower long-run stock returns and says nothing about an imminent crash.

Inflation

Is Inflation Coming Back? The PPI–CPI Gap Just Hit Its 97th Percentile

CPI accelerated from 2.4% to 4.2% in four months while PPI hit 13.1% — a 97th-percentile gap. What the five prior episodes since 1948 did to consumer prices.