Inflation Expectations (Market-Based)
Market-based inflation expectations are derived from the gap between nominal Treasury yields and inflation-protected (TIPS) yields. The 10-year breakeven is that gap over ten years; the 5-year, 5-year forward strips out the near term to show expected average inflation over the five years beginning five years from now — the Fed's preferred gauge of whether expectations are "anchored."
Latest reading
As of June 18, 2026, Inflation Expectations (5Y, 5Y forward) stands at 2.23% — up from 2.21% the prior reading. These are forward-looking, real-money bets, not surveys. The Fed targets 2% on PCE; breakevens read modestly higher (they are CPI-based and carry a risk premium). The 5y5y forward holding near 2–2.5% is what "anchored expectations" looks like — the single thing the Fed cares most about. A breakout above ~2.75% signals lost inflation-fighting credibility; a collapse toward 1.5% warns of a demand/deflation scare. Series history runs from 2003 to present.
5Y, 5Y forward
Next release: Jun 22, 2026
Full history
Methodology & data
Inflation Expectations is sourced from Fed via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Federal Reserve via FRED (T5YIFR, T10YIE), daily). We pull the complete history, chart it on a daily basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-06-20. See our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Inflation Expectations (Market-Based)?
Market-based inflation expectations are derived from the gap between nominal Treasury yields and inflation-protected (TIPS) yields. The 10-year breakeven is that gap over ten years; the 5-year, 5-year forward strips out the near term to show expected average inflation over the five years beginning five years from now — the Fed's preferred gauge of whether expectations are "anchored."
How do you read Inflation Expectations?
These are forward-looking, real-money bets, not surveys. The Fed targets 2% on PCE; breakevens read modestly higher (they are CPI-based and carry a risk premium). The 5y5y forward holding near 2–2.5% is what "anchored expectations" looks like — the single thing the Fed cares most about. A breakout above ~2.75% signals lost inflation-fighting credibility; a collapse toward 1.5% warns of a demand/deflation scare.
Where does the Inflation Expectations data come from?
Federal Reserve via FRED (T5YIFR, T10YIE), daily. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/inflation-expectations.csv.
How often is Inflation Expectations updated?
Inflation Expectations is a daily series from Fed, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.