Inflation Expectations (Term Structure)
Inflation expectations across the term structure: market-based breakevens (nominal Treasury yields minus TIPS yields) at 5 and 10 years plus the 5-year, 5-year forward — the Fed's preferred "anchoring" gauge — alongside the Cleveland Fed's model-based 1- and 2-year expected inflation. The short end shows what markets price for the near term; the long end shows whether the Fed's credibility is intact.
Latest reading
As of August 4, 2026, Inflation Expectations (5Y, 5Y forward) stands at 2.27% — down from 2.31% the prior reading. Read the ends against each other. Short-dated measures swing with oil and TIPS liquidity — a collapse in short breakevens while the 5y5y forward holds near 2–2.5% is an energy round-trip, not a regime change (and the reverse, a stable short end with a rising 5y5y, is credibility eroding). The measures can disagree sharply: in mid-2026, raw 2-year breakevens printed below 2% while the Cleveland model read 2.7% — which is exactly why no single short-end series should be treated as "the" expectation. Series history runs from 2003 to present.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-08-04 · Open ↓Close ↑
5Y, 5Y forward
- 5Y breakeven
- 2.19%
- Cleveland Fed 2Y
- 2.44%
- Cleveland Fed 1Y
- 2.39%
Next release: Aug 5, 2026
Full history
Overview
5-Year breakeven (market)
The shortest clean market-based read — nominal 5Y minus 5Y TIPS. More energy-sensitive than the long end: when this falls while the 5y5y holds, the move is mostly the oil component, not a regime change.
Cleveland Fed 2-Year expected inflation
Model-based 2-year expected inflation (monthly, forward-filled between releases) — blends swaps, surveys and yields, so it is far steadier than raw short-dated breakevens, which swing with spot oil and thin TIPS liquidity.
Cleveland Fed 1-Year expected inflation
The model's one-year-ahead read (monthly, forward-filled) — the nearest-term gauge of where inflation expectations sit, without the noise of short-dated TIPS pricing.
Methodology & data
Inflation Expectations is sourced from Fed via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Federal Reserve via FRED (T5YIFR, T10YIE, T5YIE) daily; Cleveland Fed (EXPINF1YR, EXPINF2YR) monthly). We pull the complete history, chart it on a daily basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-08-04. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Inflation Expectations (Term Structure)?
Inflation expectations across the term structure: market-based breakevens (nominal Treasury yields minus TIPS yields) at 5 and 10 years plus the 5-year, 5-year forward — the Fed's preferred "anchoring" gauge — alongside the Cleveland Fed's model-based 1- and 2-year expected inflation. The short end shows what markets price for the near term; the long end shows whether the Fed's credibility is intact.
How do you read Inflation Expectations?
Read the ends against each other. Short-dated measures swing with oil and TIPS liquidity — a collapse in short breakevens while the 5y5y forward holds near 2–2.5% is an energy round-trip, not a regime change (and the reverse, a stable short end with a rising 5y5y, is credibility eroding). The measures can disagree sharply: in mid-2026, raw 2-year breakevens printed below 2% while the Cleveland model read 2.7% — which is exactly why no single short-end series should be treated as "the" expectation.
Where does the Inflation Expectations data come from?
Federal Reserve via FRED (T5YIFR, T10YIE, T5YIE) daily; Cleveland Fed (EXPINF1YR, EXPINF2YR) monthly. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/inflation-expectations.csv.
How often is Inflation Expectations updated?
Inflation Expectations is a daily series from Fed, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.
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