Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of US national economic activity — production, employment, personal consumption and housing, and sales, orders and inventories. It is constructed so that zero equals historical-trend growth and a standard deviation of one, making it a single standardized read that the noisier individual reports cannot give.
3-month average (CFNAI-MA3)
Next release: Sep 21, 2026
Latest reading
As of July 2026, CFNAI (3-month average (CFNAI-MA3)) stands at -0.05 — down from 0.01 the prior reading, 101% below the July 2020 record of 4.57. Zero is trend growth: positive is above-trend, negative below. The thresholds that matter are read off the 3-month average (CFNAI-MA3), which filters the very noisy single month: a fall below −0.70 has reliably signaled the onset of recession, while a rise above +0.70 well into an expansion has flagged building inflationary pressure. Always read the three-month average, not one print. Series history runs from 1967 to present.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-09-18 · Open ↓Close ↑
Full history
Methodology & data
CFNAI is sourced from Chicago Fed via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED (CFNAI), monthly). We pull the complete history, chart it on a monthly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-09-18. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)?
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of US national economic activity — production, employment, personal consumption and housing, and sales, orders and inventories. It is constructed so that zero equals historical-trend growth and a standard deviation of one, making it a single standardized read that the noisier individual reports cannot give.
How do you read CFNAI?
Zero is trend growth: positive is above-trend, negative below. The thresholds that matter are read off the 3-month average (CFNAI-MA3), which filters the very noisy single month: a fall below −0.70 has reliably signaled the onset of recession, while a rise above +0.70 well into an expansion has flagged building inflationary pressure. Always read the three-month average, not one print.
Where does the CFNAI data come from?
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED (CFNAI), monthly. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/chicago-fed-activity.csv.
How often is CFNAI updated?
CFNAI is a monthly series from Chicago Fed, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.
3-month average (CFNAI-MA3)
Next release: Sep 21, 2026