Daily Market Brief: 10 Things That Mattered Today
Friday, September 25, 2026
Stocks finished the week less than 1% from their record, and almost everything underneath pulled the other way. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at its highest level since 2007, and NYSE new lows outnumbered new highs by 190.
- 01
The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and sits 0.8% below its record
SPY closed at $771.35, still short of its August 13 high. The Nasdaq 100 gained about as much as the S&P, while small caps barely moved.
SPY, last six months SPY, last six months - 02
New lows still swamp new highs with the index near a record
On the NYSE, 198 stocks made new 52-week lows and just 8 made new highs. The current episode began September 9. In the eight earlier episodes since 2010, the S&P was higher three months later only three times.
NYSE-listed new highs minus new lows, last twelve months NYSE-listed new highs minus new lows, last twelve months - 03
The 10-year yield is at its highest since July 2007
The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.18% on Thursday, the latest official print, and the TradeStation index finished Friday a touch higher. Almost all of the rise since July has come from real yields, not inflation expectations.
10-year Treasury yield (%), last twelve months 10-year Treasury yield (%), last twelve months - 04
Business investment orders hit a record
Core capital goods orders, the proxy for company spending on equipment, rose 1.6% in August to a record $87.6 billion. Headline durable goods orders were flat on the month.
Core capital goods orders ($ millions), last five years Core capital goods orders ($ millions), last five years - 05
Consumer sentiment fell back to 51.7
The University of Michigan index for August slipped from 55.2 in July. Households remain gloomy even as companies keep ordering equipment.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment, last five years University of Michigan consumer sentiment, last five years - 06
Microsoft rose 3.7% on its rebuilt Copilot
The stock closed at $516.17, its highest since November 2025, after Microsoft relaunched Copilot with usage-based billing and Oppenheimer raised its price target.
MSFT, last six months MSFT, last six months - 07
Costco reversed a weak open after earnings
Shares opened 1.1% lower after fiscal fourth-quarter results and closed up 2.9% at $922.77. Comparable sales rose 9.4%, and earnings included a one-time tariff refund.
COST, last six months COST, last six months - 08
Oil kept sliding from its September peak
The oil fund USO fell 3.1%. Brent was already 12% below its September 15 peak in the latest EIA print, and diesel at the pump has not followed it down yet.
USO (oil fund), last six months USO (oil fund), last six months - 09
The VIX fell to 14.87
Volatility eased by 0.80 points, and short-dated implied volatility sits well below three-month volatility. That is the calm, contango shape, in contrast to what breadth is showing.
VIX, last six months VIX, last six months - 10
Due Monday: Nike and Carnival
Both are scheduled to report. Carnival reports before the open; Nike's time is not listed yet.
Data as of the Friday, September 25, 2026 close. The ten items are picked by fixed rules from the site's daily data (the size of each move, signals that changed state, and economic releases weighted by importance), then checked and written by hand. Charts end on the brief's date. Research and education, not financial advice.