Core Capital Goods Orders
New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — "core capex" — is the most-watched gauge of business investment intentions. It strips out the volatile defense and aircraft categories to isolate the equipment and machinery spending that builds future productive capacity, and it feeds directly into the GDP investment component.
Latest reading
As of May 2026, Core Capex (Core capex YoY %) stands at 10.5% — down from 10.8% the prior reading. Rising core-capex orders mean companies are confident enough to invest in growth; falling orders signal caution and tend to lead hiring and the broader cycle. It is a classic leading indicator — sustained year-over-year declines have preceded slowdowns, while turns higher often mark early-cycle recoveries. Series history runs from 1993 to present.
Core capex YoY %
- Core capex orders
- $84B
Next release: Jul 2, 2026
Full history
Year-over-year %
Month-over-month %
The latest-month change — the higher-frequency momentum read that turns before the year-over-year rate at inflection points.
Dollar level
Monthly new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, in dollars — the raw business-investment pulse behind the year-over-year view above.
Methodology & data
Core Capex is sourced from Census via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Census Bureau via FRED (NEWORDER), monthly, seasonally adjusted). We pull the complete history, chart it on a monthly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-06-29. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Core Capital Goods Orders?
New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — "core capex" — is the most-watched gauge of business investment intentions. It strips out the volatile defense and aircraft categories to isolate the equipment and machinery spending that builds future productive capacity, and it feeds directly into the GDP investment component.
How do you read Core Capex?
Rising core-capex orders mean companies are confident enough to invest in growth; falling orders signal caution and tend to lead hiring and the broader cycle. It is a classic leading indicator — sustained year-over-year declines have preceded slowdowns, while turns higher often mark early-cycle recoveries.
Where does the Core Capex data come from?
Census Bureau via FRED (NEWORDER), monthly, seasonally adjusted. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/core-capex-orders.csv.
How often is Core Capex updated?
Core Capex is a monthly series from Census, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.