NBER Recession Indicator
The NBER Recession Indicator is a binary series that equals 1 during months the National Bureau of Economic Research has designated as recessions and 0 during expansions. The NBER defines a recession as a significant, economy-wide decline lasting more than a few months, weighing income, employment, consumption, sales, and industrial production.
NBER recession (0/1)
Latest reading
As of September 2026, Recession Flag (NBER recession (0/1)) stands at 0 — unchanged from 0 the prior reading, a record low in the series since 1993. This is a historical marker: 1 means recession, 0 means expansion, with no in-between. It forecasts nothing. The NBER typically dates recessions 6-12 months after they begin or end, so the flag confirms turns long after markets have moved. For prediction, lean on the yield curve, jobless claims, and the leading index instead. Series history runs from 1993 to present.
Sources, methodology & freshnessNBER via FRED (USREC), monthly, binary 0/1 · Monthly, with every releaseData as of 2026-09-01 · Open ↓Close ↑
Full history
Methodology & data
Recession Flag is sourced from NBER/FRED via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (NBER via FRED (USREC), monthly, binary 0/1). We pull the complete history, chart it on a monthly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date. Latest observation 2026-09-01; site refreshed 2026-10-22. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the NBER Recession Indicator?
The NBER Recession Indicator is a binary series that equals 1 during months the National Bureau of Economic Research has designated as recessions and 0 during expansions. The NBER defines a recession as a significant, economy-wide decline lasting more than a few months, weighing income, employment, consumption, sales, and industrial production.
How do you read Recession Flag?
This is a historical marker: 1 means recession, 0 means expansion, with no in-between. It forecasts nothing. The NBER typically dates recessions 6-12 months after they begin or end, so the flag confirms turns long after markets have moved. For prediction, lean on the yield curve, jobless claims, and the leading index instead.
Where does the Recession Flag data come from?
NBER via FRED (USREC), monthly, binary 0/1. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/recession-indicators.csv.
How often is Recession Flag updated?
Recession Flag is a monthly series from NBER/FRED, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.
NBER recession (0/1)