Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, built by Baker, Bloom, and Davis, quantifies how unsettled the policy backdrop is. It blends three inputs — newspaper coverage of policy uncertainty, the number of tax provisions set to expire, and disagreement among economic forecasters — into one index normalized so that 1985-2009 averages 100.
Latest reading
As of June 2026, Policy Uncertainty (EPU index) stands at 198 — down from 248 the prior reading. A reading of 100 is the historical baseline; above 100 is above-average uncertainty. The signal is in the spikes — elections, debt-ceiling fights, trade wars, and pandemics all send it sharply higher, and high uncertainty pushes businesses to delay hiring and investment. Use the 12-month average to separate a genuine trend from one-month noise. Series history runs from 1993 to present.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-07-24 · Open ↓Close ↑
EPU index
Next release: Jul 24, 2026
Full history
Methodology & data
Policy Uncertainty is sourced from Baker/Bloom/Davis via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Baker/Bloom/Davis via FRED (USEPUINDXM), monthly). We pull the complete history, chart it on a monthly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-07-24. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index?
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, built by Baker, Bloom, and Davis, quantifies how unsettled the policy backdrop is. It blends three inputs — newspaper coverage of policy uncertainty, the number of tax provisions set to expire, and disagreement among economic forecasters — into one index normalized so that 1985-2009 averages 100.
How do you read Policy Uncertainty?
A reading of 100 is the historical baseline; above 100 is above-average uncertainty. The signal is in the spikes — elections, debt-ceiling fights, trade wars, and pandemics all send it sharply higher, and high uncertainty pushes businesses to delay hiring and investment. Use the 12-month average to separate a genuine trend from one-month noise.
Where does the Policy Uncertainty data come from?
Baker/Bloom/Davis via FRED (USEPUINDXM), monthly. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/economic-policy-uncertainty.csv.
How often is Policy Uncertainty updated?
Policy Uncertainty is a monthly series from Baker/Bloom/Davis, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.
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