{ "schema_version": 1, "period": { "end": "2026-08-31", "label": "2026-08", "start": "2026-08-01" }, "generated_at": "2026-09-01T00:12:06.700219+00:00", "status": "machine_nominations_for_human_selection", "purpose": "Surface and cluster evidence for a monthly review; never draft or select the article thesis automatically.", "cutoff_policy": "Prices use the last close before month start and last close on or before month end. Economic observations enter only when release_date, then added_date, then observation_date falls inside the month. No post-cutoff row is eligible.", "coverage": { "price_files": 5565, "price_files_with_period_return": 5502, "indicator_files": 129, "numeric_indicator_series": 357, "release_observations_in_period": 448, "weekly_receipts_consulted": 2, "verified_events_attached": 5 }, "performance": [ { "symbol": "GDXJ", "name": "Junior gold miners", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 34.1126, "first_half_return_pct": 23.797, "second_half_return_pct": 8.3326, "year_to_date_return_pct": 12.4363, "historical_monthly_percentile": 98.49, "source_path": "/data/csv/GDXJ.csv" }, { "symbol": "GDX", "name": "Gold miners", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 32.942, "first_half_return_pct": 21.417, "second_half_return_pct": 9.4921, "year_to_date_return_pct": 14.8537, "historical_monthly_percentile": 98.99, "source_path": "/data/csv/GDX.csv" }, { "symbol": "SLV", "name": "Silver", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 14.8396, "first_half_return_pct": 11.6883, "second_half_return_pct": 2.8215, "year_to_date_return_pct": -6.6594, "historical_monthly_percentile": 90.95, "source_path": "/data/csv/SLV.csv" }, { "symbol": "GLD", "name": "Gold", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 9.9263, "first_half_return_pct": 8.0584, "second_half_return_pct": 1.7286, "year_to_date_return_pct": 3.0557, "historical_monthly_percentile": 96.98, "source_path": "/data/csv/GLD.csv" }, { "symbol": "EEM", "name": "Emerging markets", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 4.5717, "first_half_return_pct": 3.932, "second_half_return_pct": 0.6155, "year_to_date_return_pct": 22.5005, "historical_monthly_percentile": 80.9, "source_path": "/data/csv/EEM.csv" }, { "symbol": "QQQ", "name": "Nasdaq 100", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 4.1817, "first_half_return_pct": 6.2617, "second_half_return_pct": -1.9574, "year_to_date_return_pct": 16.6772, "historical_monthly_percentile": 68.29, "source_path": "/data/csv/QQQ.csv" }, { "symbol": "SPY", "name": "S&P 500", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 2.6799, "first_half_return_pct": 3.9235, "second_half_return_pct": -1.1966, "year_to_date_return_pct": 12.4839, "historical_monthly_percentile": 66.83, "source_path": "/data/csv/SPY.csv" }, { "symbol": "RSP", "name": "S&P 500 equal weight", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 2.0371, "first_half_return_pct": 3.6091, "second_half_return_pct": -1.5173, "year_to_date_return_pct": 14.5281, "historical_monthly_percentile": 56.99, "source_path": "/data/csv/RSP.csv" }, { "symbol": "EFA", "name": "Developed international", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 1.7037, "first_half_return_pct": 2.8301, "second_half_return_pct": -1.0954, "year_to_date_return_pct": 11.8921, "historical_monthly_percentile": 57.79, "source_path": "/data/csv/EFA.csv" }, { "symbol": "DIA", "name": "Dow Jones Industrial Average", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 1.3595, "first_half_return_pct": 2.3568, "second_half_return_pct": -0.9743, "year_to_date_return_pct": 10.6124, "historical_monthly_percentile": 51.76, "source_path": "/data/csv/DIA.csv" }, { "symbol": "IWM", "name": "Russell 2000", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 0.9444, "first_half_return_pct": 4.7596, "second_half_return_pct": -3.6419, "year_to_date_return_pct": 19.4142, "historical_monthly_percentile": 45.73, "source_path": "/data/csv/IWM.csv" }, { "symbol": "HYG", "name": "High-yield credit", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 0.4152, "first_half_return_pct": 0.2894, "second_half_return_pct": 0.1255, "year_to_date_return_pct": -1.017, "historical_monthly_percentile": 59.8, "source_path": "/data/csv/HYG.csv" }, { "symbol": "TLT", "name": "20-year Treasuries", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 0.3283, "first_half_return_pct": -0.2553, "second_half_return_pct": 0.5851, "year_to_date_return_pct": -5.3235, "historical_monthly_percentile": 54.77, "source_path": "/data/csv/TLT.csv" }, { "symbol": "LQD", "name": "Investment-grade credit", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": -0.0376, "first_half_return_pct": -0.1224, "second_half_return_pct": 0.0848, "year_to_date_return_pct": -3.6119, "historical_monthly_percentile": 46.23, "source_path": "/data/csv/LQD.csv" }, { "symbol": "$VIX", "name": "VIX", "domain": "asset", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": -6.6917, "first_half_return_pct": -10.8818, "second_half_return_pct": 4.7018, "year_to_date_return_pct": -0.2007, "historical_monthly_percentile": 37.19, "source_path": "/data/csv/$VIX.csv" }, { "symbol": "EWY", "name": "South Korea", "domain": "country", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 15.1241, "first_half_return_pct": 14.4112, "second_half_return_pct": 0.6231, "year_to_date_return_pct": 86.0317, "historical_monthly_percentile": 95.48, "source_path": "/data/csv/EWY.csv" }, { "symbol": "EWT", "name": "Taiwan", "domain": "country", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 11.8902, "first_half_return_pct": 10.8959, "second_half_return_pct": 0.8966, "year_to_date_return_pct": 70.0456, "historical_monthly_percentile": 97.49, "source_path": "/data/csv/EWT.csv" }, { "symbol": "EZA", "name": "South Africa", "domain": "country", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 10.8142, "first_half_return_pct": 6.1459, "second_half_return_pct": 4.398, "year_to_date_return_pct": 2.4709, "historical_monthly_percentile": 93.97, "source_path": "/data/csv/EZA.csv" }, { "symbol": "MCHI", "name": "China", "domain": "country", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": -1.9355, "first_half_return_pct": -2.0968, "second_half_return_pct": 0.1647, "year_to_date_return_pct": -8.9063, "historical_monthly_percentile": 35.33, "source_path": "/data/csv/MCHI.csv" }, { "symbol": "EPHE", "name": "Philippines", "domain": "country", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": -7.0814, "first_half_return_pct": 0.2739, "second_half_return_pct": -7.3352, "year_to_date_return_pct": -4.695, "historical_monthly_percentile": 9.47, "source_path": "/data/csv/EPHE.csv" }, { "symbol": "BSOL", "name": "Solana ETF", "domain": "crypto", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 42.5276, "first_half_return_pct": 2.7081, "second_half_return_pct": 38.7695, "year_to_date_return_pct": -13.3537, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "source_path": "/data/csv/BSOL.csv" }, { "symbol": "ETHA", "name": "Ether ETF", "domain": "crypto", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 33.049, "first_half_return_pct": 0.7818, "second_half_return_pct": 32.0169, "year_to_date_return_pct": -16.5403, "historical_monthly_percentile": 87.5, "source_path": "/data/csv/ETHA.csv" }, { "symbol": "XRPI", "name": "XRP ETF", "domain": "crypto", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 29.8969, "first_half_return_pct": -6.3574, "second_half_return_pct": 38.7156, "year_to_date_return_pct": -28.4768, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "source_path": "/data/csv/XRPI.csv" }, { "symbol": "BITW", "name": "Crypto index fund", "domain": "crypto", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 27.4994, "first_half_return_pct": -0.1234, "second_half_return_pct": 27.6569, "year_to_date_return_pct": -12.1001, "historical_monthly_percentile": 91.04, "source_path": "/data/csv/BITW.csv" }, { "symbol": "IBIT", "name": "Bitcoin ETF", "domain": "crypto", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 25.3367, "first_half_return_pct": -0.0281, "second_half_return_pct": 25.3719, "year_to_date_return_pct": -10.0302, "historical_monthly_percentile": 93.33, "source_path": "/data/csv/IBIT.csv" }, { "symbol": "LTCC", "name": "Litecoin ETF", "domain": "crypto", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 9.0576, "first_half_return_pct": -3.0192, "second_half_return_pct": 12.4528, "year_to_date_return_pct": -36.4944, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "source_path": "/data/csv/LTCC.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLE", "name": "Energy", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 7.4055, "first_half_return_pct": 3.9631, "second_half_return_pct": 3.3113, "year_to_date_return_pct": 43.0552, "historical_monthly_percentile": 84.55, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLE.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLK", "name": "Technology", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 6.3587, "first_half_return_pct": 8.3604, "second_half_return_pct": -1.8473, "year_to_date_return_pct": 29.5409, "historical_monthly_percentile": 81.16, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLK.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLV", "name": "Health Care", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 4.9154, "first_half_return_pct": 2.9652, "second_half_return_pct": 1.894, "year_to_date_return_pct": 10.168, "historical_monthly_percentile": 84.85, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLV.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLB", "name": "Materials", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 4.4815, "first_half_return_pct": 4.184, "second_half_return_pct": 0.2855, "year_to_date_return_pct": 16.1852, "historical_monthly_percentile": 77.27, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLB.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLC", "name": "Communication Services", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 2.9749, "first_half_return_pct": 4.3514, "second_half_return_pct": -1.3192, "year_to_date_return_pct": -5.3177, "historical_monthly_percentile": 62.89, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLC.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLF", "name": "Financials", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 1.3523, "first_half_return_pct": 2.1426, "second_half_return_pct": -0.7737, "year_to_date_return_pct": 5.3679, "historical_monthly_percentile": 50.91, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLF.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLY", "name": "Consumer Discretionary", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 0.4307, "first_half_return_pct": 1.8176, "second_half_return_pct": -1.3621, "year_to_date_return_pct": -2.3616, "historical_monthly_percentile": 46.36, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLY.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLP", "name": "Consumer Staples", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": -0.0823, "first_half_return_pct": 1.2228, "second_half_return_pct": -1.2893, "year_to_date_return_pct": 9.3975, "historical_monthly_percentile": 42.12, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLP.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLRE", "name": "Real Estate", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": -2.13, "first_half_return_pct": 0.4438, "second_half_return_pct": -2.5624, "year_to_date_return_pct": 9.3185, "historical_monthly_percentile": 27.13, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLRE.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLI", "name": "Industrials", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": -2.619, "first_half_return_pct": 3.7089, "second_half_return_pct": -6.1015, "year_to_date_return_pct": 12.8997, "historical_monthly_percentile": 23.33, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLI.csv" }, { "symbol": "XLU", "name": "Utilities", "domain": "sector", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": -4.7802, "first_half_return_pct": -0.0902, "second_half_return_pct": -4.6942, "year_to_date_return_pct": -1.0775, "historical_monthly_percentile": 13.64, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLU.csv" }, { "symbol": "MRNA", "name": "MRNA", "domain": "stock", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 156.0015, "first_half_return_pct": 15.5053, "second_half_return_pct": 121.6361, "year_to_date_return_pct": 375.8901, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "source_path": "/data/csv/MRNA.csv" }, { "symbol": "ANF", "name": "ANF", "domain": "stock", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 43.7412, "first_half_return_pct": 8.6297, "second_half_return_pct": 32.3222, "year_to_date_return_pct": 13.6728, "historical_monthly_percentile": 98.99, "source_path": "/data/csv/ANF.csv" }, { "symbol": "CRM", "name": "CRM", "domain": "stock", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 39.9522, "first_half_return_pct": 6.6243, "second_half_return_pct": 31.2573, "year_to_date_return_pct": -2.7821, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "source_path": "/data/csv/CRM.csv" }, { "symbol": "MRK", "name": "MRK", "domain": "stock", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 13.4695, "first_half_return_pct": 4.3158, "second_half_return_pct": 8.775, "year_to_date_return_pct": 40.3762, "historical_monthly_percentile": 98.49, "source_path": "/data/csv/MRK.csv" }, { "symbol": "NVDA", "name": "NVDA", "domain": "stock", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": 9.8381, "first_half_return_pct": 12.1594, "second_half_return_pct": -2.0696, "year_to_date_return_pct": 18.2306, "historical_monthly_percentile": 70.85, "source_path": "/data/csv/NVDA.csv" }, { "symbol": "DKS", "name": "DKS", "domain": "stock", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "return_pct": -31.0398, "first_half_return_pct": 3.0933, "second_half_return_pct": -33.1089, "year_to_date_return_pct": -31.7573, "historical_monthly_percentile": 1.01, "source_path": "/data/csv/DKS.csv" } ], "evidence_families": [ { "id": "business-household-split", "thesis": "Business formation, capex and profits diverged from softer household and labor readings.", "candidate_ids": [ "indicator-corporate-profit-margin", "indicator-corporate-profits", "indicator-business-applications", "indicator-personal-income", "indicator-labor-productivity", "indicator-core-capex-orders", "indicator-real-consumer-spending", "indicator-nonfarm-payrolls", "indicator-real-retail-sales", "indicator-jobless-claims", "indicator-personal-saving-rate" ] }, { "id": "narrow-risk-on", "thesis": "Risk assets rose, but participation and leadership were uneven.", "candidate_ids": [ "price-xhld", "price-adtx", "price-arct", "price-mrna", "price-fblg", "price-rcel", "price-oesx", "price-oabi", "price-qmco", "price-abcl", "indicator-margin-debt", "price-bsol", "event-nvidia-salesforce-index-session", "event-moderna-merck-phase-three", "price-gdxj", "price-gdx", "price-xrpi", "price-ibit", "price-bitw", "price-etha", "price-ewy", "price-ewt", "market-breadth-divergence", "price-gld", "price-slv", "price-eza", "price-ephe", "price-xle", "price-xlu", "price-xlv", "price-xlk", "price-eem", "price-xlb", "price-qqq", "price-vix" ] }, { "id": "energy-capacity", "thesis": "Energy prices met unusually tight refining capacity and inventory conditions.", "candidate_ids": [ "indicator-crack-spread", "indicator-diesel-wholesale-price", "event-hormuz-fighting-resumes", "indicator-refinery-utilization", "indicator-distillate-inventories" ] }, { "id": "policy-bind", "thesis": "Soft labor data and persistent inflation kept monetary policy boxed in.", "candidate_ids": [ "event-treasury-buyback-expansion", "event-warsh-policy-speech", "indicator-core-cpi", "indicator-pce", "indicator-core-pce" ] }, { "id": "metals-to-crypto-rotation", "thesis": "Precious metals moved early in August; a broad crypto rebound followed in the second half.", "candidate_ids": [ "price-bsol", "price-gdxj", "price-gdx", "price-xrpi", "price-ibit", "price-bitw", "price-etha", "price-gld", "price-slv" ] } ], "candidates": [ { "id": "price-xhld", "domain": "stock", "title": "XHLD moved +809.00% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 99.9, "facts": { "domain": "stock", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 488.0, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "XHLD", "return_pct": 809.0, "second_half_return_pct": 54.5918, "source_path": "/data/csv/XHLD.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "XHLD", "year_to_date_return_pct": 670.339 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/XHLD.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=XHLD" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-adtx", "domain": "stock", "title": "ADTX moved +188.46% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 99.42325493836285, "facts": { "domain": "stock", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": -11.5385, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "ADTX", "return_pct": 188.4615, "second_half_return_pct": 226.087, "source_path": "/data/csv/ADTX.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "ADTX", "year_to_date_return_pct": -99.9958 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/ADTX.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=ADTX" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-arct", "domain": "stock", "title": "ARCT moved +156.25% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 98.90157665941481, "facts": { "domain": "stock", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 42.8819, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "ARCT", "return_pct": 156.25, "second_half_return_pct": 79.3439, "source_path": "/data/csv/ARCT.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "ARCT", "year_to_date_return_pct": 140.783 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/ARCT.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=ARCT" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-mrna", "domain": "stock", "title": "MRNA moved +156.00% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 98.89610300878826, "facts": { "domain": "stock", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 15.5053, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "MRNA", "return_pct": 156.0015, "second_half_return_pct": 121.6361, "source_path": "/data/csv/MRNA.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "MRNA", "year_to_date_return_pct": 375.8901 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/MRNA.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=MRNA" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-fblg", "domain": "stock", "title": "FBLG moved +145.71% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 98.64393094927878, "facts": { "domain": "stock", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 51.4286, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "FBLG", "return_pct": 145.7143, "second_half_return_pct": 62.2642, "source_path": "/data/csv/FBLG.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "FBLG", "year_to_date_return_pct": -61.7778 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/FBLG.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=FBLG" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-rcel", "domain": "stock", "title": "RCEL moved +129.55% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 98.12620322401223, "facts": { "domain": "stock", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 78.4091, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "RCEL", "return_pct": 129.5455, "second_half_return_pct": 28.6624, "source_path": "/data/csv/RCEL.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "RCEL", "year_to_date_return_pct": 192.7536 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/RCEL.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=RCEL" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-oesx", "domain": "stock", "title": "OESX moved +127.62% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 98.05278416123102, "facts": { "domain": "stock", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 91.5842, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "OESX", "return_pct": 127.6238, "second_half_return_pct": 18.8114, "source_path": "/data/csv/OESX.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "OESX", "year_to_date_return_pct": 49.4798 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/OESX.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=OESX" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-oabi", "domain": "stock", "title": "OABI moved +121.21% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 97.78637066709278, "facts": { "domain": "stock", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 70.7071, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "OABI", "return_pct": 121.2121, "second_half_return_pct": 29.5858, "source_path": "/data/csv/OABI.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "OABI", "year_to_date_return_pct": 136.7568 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/OABI.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=OABI" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-qmco", "domain": "stock", "title": "QMCO moved +128.67% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 99.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 97.59041834995236, "facts": { "domain": "stock", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 145.3947, "historical_monthly_percentile": 98.99, "name": "QMCO", "return_pct": 128.6654, "second_half_return_pct": -6.8173, "source_path": "/data/csv/QMCO.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "QMCO", "year_to_date_return_pct": 277.2093 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/QMCO.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=QMCO" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-abcl", "domain": "stock", "title": "ABCL moved +101.05% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 96.68698032161913, "facts": { "domain": "stock", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 99.2995, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "ABCL", "return_pct": 101.0508, "second_half_return_pct": 0.8787, "source_path": "/data/csv/ABCL.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "ABCL", "year_to_date_return_pct": 235.6725 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/ABCL.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=ABCL" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "indicator-margin-debt", "domain": "leverage", "title": "margin-debt / debit_mom produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value -84847.0000; level percentile 0.0; absolute-step percentile 100.0.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 95.0, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 100.0, "column": "debit_mom", "effective_date": "2026-08-31", "level_percentile": 0.0, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 86515.0, "temporal_basis": "added_date", "value": -84847.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/margin-debt.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/margin-debt" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used added_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-crack-spread", "domain": "energy", "title": "crack-spread / crack_200d_ma produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 42.4000; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 99.9.", "as_of": "2026-08-17", "score": 94.9235863474274, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 99.92, "column": "crack_200d_ma", "effective_date": "2026-08-17", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-08-17", "prior_value": 41.59, "temporal_basis": "observation_date_backfill", "value": 42.4 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/crack-spread.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/crack-spread" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used observation_date_backfill." ] }, { "id": "indicator-corporate-profit-margin", "domain": "business", "title": "corporate-profit-margin / profits_after_tax produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 2542.7780; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 99.1.", "as_of": "2026-08-26", "score": 94.0506329113924, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 99.05, "column": "profits_after_tax", "effective_date": "2026-08-26", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-04-01", "prior_value": 2332.875, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 2542.778 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/corporate-profit-margin.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/corporate-profit-margin" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-corporate-profits", "domain": "business", "title": "corporate-profits / profits_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 4302.4160; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 98.7.", "as_of": "2026-08-26", "score": 93.73417721518987, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 98.73, "column": "profits_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-26", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-04-01", "prior_value": 3950.681, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 4302.416 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/corporate-profits.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/corporate-profits" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-diesel-wholesale-price", "domain": "energy", "title": "diesel-wholesale-price / diesel_nyh_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 4.2120; level percentile 98.4; absolute-step percentile 99.4.", "as_of": "2026-08-10", "score": 93.58571731522869, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 99.39, "column": "diesel_nyh_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-10", "level_percentile": 98.4, "observation_date": "2026-08-10", "prior_value": 3.91, "temporal_basis": "observation_date_backfill", "value": 4.212 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/diesel-wholesale-price.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/diesel-wholesale-price" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used observation_date_backfill." ] }, { "id": "indicator-shiller-cape", "domain": "economy", "title": "shiller-cape / sp_price produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 7600.5000; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 97.1.", "as_of": "2026-08-04", "score": 92.13631156930126, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 97.14, "column": "sp_price", "effective_date": "2026-08-04", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-08-01", "prior_value": 7481.3391, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 7600.5 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/shiller-cape.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/shiller-cape" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-lumber-price", "domain": "economy", "title": "lumber-price / lumber_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 300.6140; level percentile 97.6; absolute-step percentile 97.3.", "as_of": "2026-08-13", "score": 91.06632261357161, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 97.27, "column": "lumber_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-13", "level_percentile": 97.59, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 282.546, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 300.614 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/lumber-price.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/lumber-price" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-money-supply", "domain": "economy", "title": "money-supply / m2_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 23218.0000; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 94.9.", "as_of": "2026-08-25", "score": 89.93201483312731, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 94.93, "column": "m2_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-25", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 23115.2, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 23218.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/money-supply.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/money-supply" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "price-bsol", "domain": "crypto", "title": "BSOL moved +42.53% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 89.32051971490927, "facts": { "domain": "crypto", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 2.7081, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "Solana ETF", "return_pct": 42.5276, "second_half_return_pct": 38.7695, "source_path": "/data/csv/BSOL.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "BSOL", "year_to_date_return_pct": -13.3537 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/BSOL.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=BSOL" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "event-treasury-buyback-expansion", "domain": "policy", "title": "Treasury doubled the minimum cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks", "why_now": "The maximum size of long-end liquidity-support operations will rise from $2 billion to at least $4 billion beginning September 9.", "as_of": "2026-08-19", "score": 88.0, "facts": { "affected_symbols": [ "TLT" ], "source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607" }, "source_paths": [ "/config/monthly-review-events/2026-08.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607" ], "caveats": [ "This is a Treasury market-functioning operation, not Federal Reserve quantitative easing." ] }, { "id": "event-nvidia-salesforce-index-session", "domain": "breadth", "title": "Nvidia and Salesforce lifted cap weight while equal weight fell", "why_now": "The session supplied a concrete example of August's index-level strength and weaker average-stock participation.", "as_of": "2026-08-27", "score": 88.0, "facts": { "affected_symbols": [ "NVDA", "CRM", "SPY", "RSP" ], "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/35c60216666d877595a3941df73030de" }, "source_paths": [ "/config/monthly-review-events/2026-08.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "https://apnews.com/article/35c60216666d877595a3941df73030de" ], "caveats": [ "One session illustrates concentration but does not establish the monthly breadth result on its own." ] }, { "id": "event-warsh-policy-speech", "domain": "policy", "title": "Warsh emphasized prices while acknowledging a split economy", "why_now": "The speech described strong business capex and profits alongside housing and agricultural strain, matching the divergence in August releases.", "as_of": "2026-08-28", "score": 88.0, "facts": { "affected_symbols": [ "SPY", "TLT" ], "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm" }, "source_paths": [ "/config/monthly-review-events/2026-08.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm" ], "caveats": [ "A speech describes the chair's framework; it is not a policy decision or a promise about the next meeting." ] }, { "id": "event-moderna-merck-phase-three", "domain": "stock", "title": "Moderna and Merck reported the first positive phase 3 result for an individualized neoantigen therapy", "why_now": "Intismeran autogene plus Keytruda met recurrence-free and distant-metastasis-free survival endpoints in melanoma, and MRNA produced the month's largest verified company move in the review set.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 88.0, "facts": { "affected_symbols": [ "MRNA", "MRK" ], "source_url": "https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-moderna-announce-phase-3-interpath-001-trial-of-intismeran-autogene-plus-keytruda-met-endpoints-of-recurrence-free-survival-rfs-and-distant-metastasis-free-survival-dmfs-in-patient/" }, "source_paths": [ "/config/monthly-review-events/2026-08.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-moderna-announce-phase-3-interpath-001-trial-of-intismeran-autogene-plus-keytruda-met-endpoints-of-recurrence-free-survival-rfs-and-distant-metastasis-free-survival-dmfs-in-patient/" ], "caveats": [ "Top-line endpoints do not replace review of the full safety data, effect sizes or regulatory process." ] }, { "id": "event-hormuz-fighting-resumes", "domain": "energy", "title": "Renewed fighting at the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil on the final session", "why_now": "Brent rose 2.7% to $90.49 as the disruption arrived with US refinery utilization already near a historical extreme and distillate inventories unusually low.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 88.0, "facts": { "affected_symbols": [ "XLE" ], "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/00f872327d65e5330598054a234dc25a" }, "source_paths": [ "/config/monthly-review-events/2026-08.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "https://apnews.com/article/00f872327d65e5330598054a234dc25a" ], "caveats": [ "The event explains the final-session move; it did not cause the refining and inventory constraints that predated it." ] }, { "id": "indicator-business-applications", "domain": "business", "title": "business-applications / applications_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 578926.0000; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 92.4.", "as_of": "2026-08-12", "score": 87.39543726235742, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 92.4, "column": "applications_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-12", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 535690.0, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 578926.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/business-applications.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/business-applications" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-new-home-months-supply", "domain": "housing", "title": "new-home-months-supply / supply_months produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 9.6000; level percentile 95.7; absolute-step percentile 93.8.", "as_of": "2026-08-25", "score": 86.65856156942276, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 93.82, "column": "supply_months", "effective_date": "2026-08-25", "level_percentile": 95.67, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 8.5, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 9.6 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/new-home-months-supply.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/new-home-months-supply" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "price-gdxj", "domain": "asset", "title": "GDXJ moved +34.11% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 98.5th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 86.60929436935733, "facts": { "domain": "asset", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 23.797, "historical_monthly_percentile": 98.49, "name": "Junior gold miners", "return_pct": 34.1126, "second_half_return_pct": 8.3326, "source_path": "/data/csv/GDXJ.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "GDXJ", "year_to_date_return_pct": 12.4363 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/GDXJ.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=GDXJ" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "indicator-core-cpi", "domain": "inflation", "title": "core-cpi / core_cpi_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 336.7890; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 91.6.", "as_of": "2026-08-12", "score": 86.58653846153847, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 91.59, "column": "core_cpi_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-12", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 336.065, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 336.789 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/core-cpi.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/core-cpi" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "price-gdx", "domain": "asset", "title": "GDX moved +32.94% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 99.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 86.56119900792677, "facts": { "domain": "asset", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 21.417, "historical_monthly_percentile": 98.99, "name": "Gold miners", "return_pct": 32.942, "second_half_return_pct": 9.4921, "source_path": "/data/csv/GDX.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "GDX", "year_to_date_return_pct": 14.8537 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/GDX.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=GDX" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-xrpi", "domain": "crypto", "title": "XRPI moved +29.90% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 100.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 86.25139065381725, "facts": { "domain": "crypto", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": -6.3574, "historical_monthly_percentile": 100.0, "name": "XRP ETF", "return_pct": 29.8969, "second_half_return_pct": 38.7156, "source_path": "/data/csv/XRPI.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "XRPI", "year_to_date_return_pct": -28.4768 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/XRPI.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=XRPI" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "indicator-personal-income", "domain": "households", "title": "personal-income / personal_income produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 27114.8000; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 85.3.", "as_of": "2026-08-26", "score": 85.0, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 85.29, "column": "personal_income", "effective_date": "2026-08-26", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 26999.7, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 27114.8 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/personal-income.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/personal-income" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-labor-productivity", "domain": "labor", "title": "labor-productivity / productivity_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 120.0170; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 57.3.", "as_of": "2026-08-06", "score": 85.0, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 57.28, "column": "productivity_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-06", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-04-01", "prior_value": 119.594, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 120.017 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/labor-productivity.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/labor-productivity" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-core-capex-orders", "domain": "business", "title": "core-capex-orders / capex_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 85946.0000; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 11.7.", "as_of": "2026-08-26", "score": 85.0, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 11.65, "column": "capex_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-26", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 85771.0, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 85946.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/core-capex-orders.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/core-capex-orders" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-pce", "domain": "inflation", "title": "pce / pce_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 131.6590; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 72.2.", "as_of": "2026-08-26", "score": 85.0, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 72.19, "column": "pce_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-26", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 131.454, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 131.659 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/pce.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/pce" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-core-pce", "domain": "inflation", "title": "core-pce / core_pce_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 130.6580; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 88.0.", "as_of": "2026-08-26", "score": 85.0, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 88.03, "column": "core_pce_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-26", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 130.338, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 130.658 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/core-pce.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/core-pce" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-real-consumer-spending", "domain": "households", "title": "real-consumer-spending / real_pce_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 16901.3000; level percentile 100.0; absolute-step percentile 2.4.", "as_of": "2026-08-26", "score": 85.0, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 2.36, "column": "real_pce_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-26", "level_percentile": 100.0, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 16900.0, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 16901.3 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/real-consumer-spending.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/real-consumer-spending" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-nonfarm-payrolls", "domain": "labor", "title": "nonfarm-payrolls / payrolls_level produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 158858.0000; level percentile 99.8; absolute-step percentile 5.6.", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "score": 84.9047619047619, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 5.62, "column": "payrolls_level", "effective_date": "2026-08-07", "level_percentile": 99.81, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 158881.0, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 158858.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/nonfarm-payrolls.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/nonfarm-payrolls" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-real-retail-sales", "domain": "households", "title": "real-retail-sales / real_retail_sales_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 229439.0000; level percentile 99.8; absolute-step percentile 74.8.", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "score": 84.87531172069825, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 74.75, "column": "real_retail_sales_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-14", "level_percentile": 99.75, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 230952.0, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 229439.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/real-retail-sales.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/real-retail-sales" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-zillow-home-value", "domain": "housing", "title": "zillow-home-value / zhvi_value produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 371774.0000; level percentile 99.1; absolute-step percentile 4.4.", "as_of": "2026-08-17", "score": 84.52830188679246, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 4.42, "column": "zhvi_value", "effective_date": "2026-08-17", "level_percentile": 99.06, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 371665.0, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 371774.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/zillow-home-value.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/zillow-home-value" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-refinery-utilization", "domain": "energy", "title": "refinery-utilization / utilization_pct produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 97.4000; level percentile 97.9; absolute-step percentile 12.3.", "as_of": "2026-08-26", "score": 83.94271948608137, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 12.32, "column": "utilization_pct", "effective_date": "2026-08-26", "level_percentile": 97.89, "observation_date": "2026-08-21", "prior_value": 97.2, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 97.4 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/refinery-utilization.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/refinery-utilization" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-jobless-claims", "domain": "labor", "title": "jobless-claims / claims_4wk_ma produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 199000.0000; level percentile 2.3; absolute-step percentile 64.1.", "as_of": "2026-08-06", "score": 83.86473429951691, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 64.14, "column": "claims_4wk_ma", "effective_date": "2026-08-06", "level_percentile": 2.27, "observation_date": "2026-08-01", "prior_value": 203250.0, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 199000.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/jobless-claims.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/jobless-claims" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-personal-saving-rate", "domain": "households", "title": "personal-saving-rate / saving_rate produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 3.0000; level percentile 5.2; absolute-step percentile 57.4.", "as_of": "2026-08-26", "score": 82.4074074074074, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 57.42, "column": "saving_rate", "effective_date": "2026-08-26", "level_percentile": 5.19, "observation_date": "2026-07-01", "prior_value": 2.6, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 3.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/personal-saving-rate.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/personal-saving-rate" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "indicator-distillate-inventories", "domain": "energy", "title": "distillate-inventories / distillate_stocks_mmb produced a month-end evidence flag", "why_now": "Value 103.3910; level percentile 9.4; absolute-step percentile 62.3.", "as_of": "2026-08-26", "score": 80.3056768558952, "facts": { "absolute_step_percentile": 62.3, "column": "distillate_stocks_mmb", "effective_date": "2026-08-26", "level_percentile": 9.39, "observation_date": "2026-08-21", "prior_value": 105.619, "temporal_basis": "release_date", "value": 103.391 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/distillate-inventories.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/distillate-inventories" ], "caveats": [ "One candidate per dataset survives; correlated columns are intentionally deduplicated.", "Temporal inclusion used release_date." ] }, { "id": "price-ibit", "domain": "crypto", "title": "IBIT moved +25.34% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 93.3th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 79.60516667978929, "facts": { "domain": "crypto", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": -0.0281, "historical_monthly_percentile": 93.33, "name": "Bitcoin ETF", "return_pct": 25.3367, "second_half_return_pct": 25.3719, "source_path": "/data/csv/IBIT.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "IBIT", "year_to_date_return_pct": -10.0302 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/IBIT.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=IBIT" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-bitw", "domain": "crypto", "title": "BITW moved +27.50% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 91.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 79.0984647721188, "facts": { "domain": "crypto", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": -0.1234, "historical_monthly_percentile": 91.04, "name": "Crypto index fund", "return_pct": 27.4994, "second_half_return_pct": 27.6569, "source_path": "/data/csv/BITW.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "BITW", "year_to_date_return_pct": -12.1001 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/BITW.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=BITW" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-etha", "domain": "crypto", "title": "ETHA moved +33.05% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 87.5th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 78.84138375163971, "facts": { "domain": "crypto", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 0.7818, "historical_monthly_percentile": 87.5, "name": "Ether ETF", "return_pct": 33.049, "second_half_return_pct": 32.0169, "source_path": "/data/csv/ETHA.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "ETHA", "year_to_date_return_pct": -16.5403 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/ETHA.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=ETHA" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-ewy", "domain": "country", "title": "EWY moved +15.12% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 95.5th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 77.2641578711226, "facts": { "domain": "country", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 14.4112, "historical_monthly_percentile": 95.48, "name": "South Korea", "return_pct": 15.1241, "second_half_return_pct": 0.6231, "source_path": "/data/csv/EWY.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "EWY", "year_to_date_return_pct": 86.0317 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/EWY.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=EWY" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-ewt", "domain": "country", "title": "EWT moved +11.89% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 97.5th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 77.03479360225191, "facts": { "domain": "country", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 10.8959, "historical_monthly_percentile": 97.49, "name": "Taiwan", "return_pct": 11.8902, "second_half_return_pct": 0.8966, "source_path": "/data/csv/EWT.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "EWT", "year_to_date_return_pct": 70.0456 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/EWT.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=EWT" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "market-breadth-divergence", "domain": "breadth", "title": "The index advanced while 50-day participation fell", "why_now": "The S&P 500 gained 2.68% while the share above 50-day averages changed -1.7 percentage points.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 76.33994591917326, "facts": { "change_pp": -1.66, "end_pct_above_50d": 45.87, "index_return_pct": 2.6799, "start_pct_above_50d": 47.53 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/market_breadth/market_breadth.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/market-breadth" ], "caveats": [ "A divergence is descriptive, not a reversal signal; long-term breadth can disagree." ] }, { "id": "price-gld", "domain": "asset", "title": "GLD moved +9.93% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 97.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 75.99398169768934, "facts": { "domain": "asset", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 8.0584, "historical_monthly_percentile": 96.98, "name": "Gold", "return_pct": 9.9263, "second_half_return_pct": 1.7286, "source_path": "/data/csv/GLD.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "GLD", "year_to_date_return_pct": 3.0557 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/GLD.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=GLD" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-slv", "domain": "asset", "title": "SLV moved +14.84% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 91.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 74.89741206164935, "facts": { "domain": "asset", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 11.6883, "historical_monthly_percentile": 90.95, "name": "Silver", "return_pct": 14.8396, "second_half_return_pct": 2.8215, "source_path": "/data/csv/SLV.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "SLV", "year_to_date_return_pct": -6.6594 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/SLV.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=SLV" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-eza", "domain": "country", "title": "EZA moved +10.81% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 94.0th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 74.8472657576982, "facts": { "domain": "country", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 6.1459, "historical_monthly_percentile": 93.97, "name": "South Africa", "return_pct": 10.8142, "second_half_return_pct": 4.398, "source_path": "/data/csv/EZA.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "EZA", "year_to_date_return_pct": 2.4709 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/EZA.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=EZA" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-ephe", "domain": "country", "title": "EPHE moved -7.08% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 9.5th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 71.56454618842405, "facts": { "domain": "country", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 0.2739, "historical_monthly_percentile": 9.47, "name": "Philippines", "return_pct": -7.0814, "second_half_return_pct": -7.3352, "source_path": "/data/csv/EPHE.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "EPHE", "year_to_date_return_pct": -4.695 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/EPHE.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=EPHE" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-xle", "domain": "sector", "title": "XLE moved +7.41% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 84.5th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 68.71433887438272, "facts": { "domain": "sector", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 3.9631, "historical_monthly_percentile": 84.55, "name": "Energy", "return_pct": 7.4055, "second_half_return_pct": 3.3113, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLE.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "XLE", "year_to_date_return_pct": 43.0552 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/XLE.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=XLE" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-xlu", "domain": "sector", "title": "XLU moved -4.78% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 13.6th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 68.4612030452304, "facts": { "domain": "sector", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": -0.0902, "historical_monthly_percentile": 13.64, "name": "Utilities", "return_pct": -4.7802, "second_half_return_pct": -4.6942, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLU.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "XLU", "year_to_date_return_pct": -1.0775 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/XLU.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=XLU" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-xlv", "domain": "sector", "title": "XLV moved +4.92% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 84.8th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 67.76500477515046, "facts": { "domain": "sector", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 2.9652, "historical_monthly_percentile": 84.85, "name": "Health Care", "return_pct": 4.9154, "second_half_return_pct": 1.894, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLV.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "XLV", "year_to_date_return_pct": 10.168 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/XLV.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=XLV" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-xlk", "domain": "sector", "title": "XLK moved +6.36% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 81.2th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 66.56300155088923, "facts": { "domain": "sector", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 8.3604, "historical_monthly_percentile": 81.16, "name": "Technology", "return_pct": 6.3587, "second_half_return_pct": -1.8473, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLK.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "XLK", "year_to_date_return_pct": 29.5409 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/XLK.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=XLK" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-eem", "domain": "asset", "title": "EEM moved +4.57% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 80.9th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 65.63672082555019, "facts": { "domain": "asset", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 3.932, "historical_monthly_percentile": 80.9, "name": "Emerging markets", "return_pct": 4.5717, "second_half_return_pct": 0.6155, "source_path": "/data/csv/EEM.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "EEM", "year_to_date_return_pct": 22.5005 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/EEM.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=EEM" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-xlb", "domain": "sector", "title": "XLB moved +4.48% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 77.3th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 63.779610039566265, "facts": { "domain": "sector", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 4.184, "historical_monthly_percentile": 77.27, "name": "Materials", "return_pct": 4.4815, "second_half_return_pct": 0.2855, "source_path": "/data/csv/XLB.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "XLB", "year_to_date_return_pct": 16.1852 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/XLB.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=XLB" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-qqq", "domain": "asset", "title": "QQQ moved +4.18% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 68.3th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 59.15216726061679, "facts": { "domain": "asset", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": 6.2617, "historical_monthly_percentile": 68.29, "name": "Nasdaq 100", "return_pct": 4.1817, "second_half_return_pct": -1.9574, "source_path": "/data/csv/QQQ.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "QQQ", "year_to_date_return_pct": 16.6772 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/QQQ.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=QQQ" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] }, { "id": "price-vix", "domain": "asset", "title": "$VIX moved -6.69% during 2026-08", "why_now": "The move ranked at the 37.2th percentile of prior monthly returns.", "as_of": "2026-08-31", "score": 57.53864596997943, "facts": { "domain": "asset", "end_close_date": "2026-08-31", "first_half_return_pct": -10.8818, "historical_monthly_percentile": 37.19, "name": "VIX", "return_pct": -6.6917, "second_half_return_pct": 4.7018, "source_path": "/data/csv/$VIX.csv", "start_close_date": "2026-07-31", "symbol": "$VIX", "year_to_date_return_pct": -0.2007 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/csv/$VIX.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=$VIX" ], "caveats": [ "Price rarity is measured against the instrument's own available monthly history." ] } ], "weekly_receipts": [ "/data/market_changelog/2026-08-21.json", "/data/market_changelog/2026-08-28.json" ], "what_did_not_confirm": [ "Volatility did not contradict the equity gain: the VIX fell during the month.", "Equal weight lagged cap weight but still rose, so narrow leadership was not an outright breadth collapse.", "Long Treasuries moved less than 1%, so gold's surge did not coincide with a broad duration rally.", "Crypto's broad August rebound did not repair the longer drawdown: every tracked proxy remained negative year to date." ], "methodology": [ "Every numeric indicator column is scanned, but only the highest-scoring column per source dataset survives deduplication.", "Level percentiles and step percentiles use only observations available before the flagged row; ties receive half weight.", "All price files are scanned. Curated sector, asset, country and crypto proxies remain in the performance table; only extreme stocks become candidates.", "Weekly receipts are consulted for continuity. Event explanations enter only through the source-controlled verified-event file.", "A human editor chooses the thesis, verifies causality and decides what not to publish." ] }