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14.87, "ytd": 7.94 }, { "d1": -0.49, "last_close": 28.15, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 0.18, "m3": 0.86, "m6": -1.19, "name": "Malaysia", "symbol": "EWM", "w1": -0.74, "y1": 12.74, "ytd": 2.89 }, { "d1": -0.26, "last_close": 61.86, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": -2.06, "m3": 6.58, "m6": 16.81, "name": "Italy", "symbol": "EWI", "w1": -0.59, "y1": 22.13, "ytd": 13.86 }, { "d1": 0.99, "last_close": 54.91, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": -1.79, "m3": 0.86, "m6": -3.19, "name": "China", "symbol": "MCHI", "w1": -0.58, "y1": -8.94, "ytd": -8.59 }, { "d1": -0.51, "last_close": 40.84, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": -1.16, "m3": 5.75, "m6": 4.74, "name": "Chile", "symbol": "ECH", "w1": -0.37, "y1": 22.28, "ytd": 1.09 }, { "d1": -0.57, "last_close": 63.13, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": -0.93, "m3": 3.47, "m6": 3.25, "name": "Switzerland", "symbol": "EWL", "w1": -0.28, "y1": 13.32, "ytd": 5.29 }, { "d1": 1.45, "last_close": 18.16, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 4.07, "m3": 0.94, "m6": 4.07, "name": "Vietnam", "symbol": "VNM", "w1": -0.11, "y1": -1.47, "ytd": -4.82 }, { "d1": -0.54, "last_close": 27.75, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 2.32, "m3": 4.01, "m6": 11.22, "name": "Belgium", "symbol": "EWK", "w1": 0.04, "y1": 22.25, "ytd": 14.2 }, { "d1": -0.18, "last_close": 48.59, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 0.6, "m3": 4.76, "m6": 5.58, "name": "United Kingdom", "symbol": "EWU", "w1": 0.08, "y1": 17.4, "ytd": 10.48 }, { "d1": -0.44, "last_close": 76.63, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 0.0, "m3": 2.04, "m6": 3.95, "name": "Mexico", "symbol": "EWW", "w1": 0.2, "y1": 21.5, "ytd": 10.53 }, { "d1": -0.69, "last_close": 62.04, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 2.21, "m3": 6.91, "m6": 10.1, "name": "Canada", "symbol": "EWC", "w1": 0.5, "y1": 26.3, "ytd": 15.04 }, { "d1": -0.03, "last_close": 161.89, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 1.12, "m3": 4.86, "m6": 14.26, "name": "MSCI All-Country World (benchmark)", "symbol": "ACWI", "w1": 0.5, "y1": 20.86, "ytd": 14.42 }, { "d1": 0.26, "last_close": 62.75, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 0.72, "m3": 10.49, "m6": 17.95, "name": "Spain", "symbol": "EWP", "w1": 0.64, "y1": 32.16, "ytd": 16.4 }, { "d1": -0.02, "last_close": 49.91, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": -0.42, "m3": 5.43, "m6": -0.16, "name": "India", "symbol": "INDA", "w1": 0.71, "y1": -5.1, "ytd": -7.66 }, { "d1": -0.46, "last_close": 30.23, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 0.23, "m3": 7.73, "m6": 6.71, "name": "Australia", "symbol": "EWA", "w1": 0.77, "y1": 12.38, "ytd": 15.43 }, { "d1": 1.48, "last_close": 69.11, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 0.85, "m3": 5.35, "m6": 18.89, "name": "Netherlands", "symbol": "EWN", "w1": 0.88, "y1": 30.72, "ytd": 21.18 }, { "d1": 0.96, "last_close": 23.2, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 3.16, "m3": 6.32, "m6": 0.13, "name": "Hong Kong", "symbol": "EWH", "w1": 1.13, "y1": 10.48, "ytd": 9.18 }, { "d1": -0.25, "last_close": 71.64, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 7.12, "m3": 11.29, "m6": 1.59, "name": "South 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"2026-09-04", "m1": 3.29, "m3": 8.33, "m6": 15.94, "name": "Japan", "symbol": "EWJ", "w1": 2.51, "y1": 24.83, "ytd": 21.72 }, { "d1": -0.4, "last_close": 96.41, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 4.16, "m3": 5.26, "m6": 11.41, "name": "Argentina", "symbol": "ARGT", "w1": 2.78, "y1": 20.84, "ytd": 5.47 }, { "d1": -1.21, "last_close": 13.06, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 3.57, "m3": 16.3, "m6": -19.43, "name": "Indonesia", "symbol": "EIDO", "w1": 3.16, "y1": -26.51, "ytd": -30.16 }, { "d1": 1.28, "last_close": 45.12, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 2.41, "m3": 15.99, "m6": 27.57, "name": "Poland", "symbol": "EPOL", "w1": 3.77, "y1": 40.43, "ytd": 28.22 }, { "d1": 1.86, "last_close": 112.18, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 10.0, "m3": 14.38, "m6": 61.36, "name": "Taiwan", "symbol": "EWT", "w1": 3.97, "y1": 89.17, "ytd": 76.58 }, { "d1": 4.6, "last_close": 188.87, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 15.08, "m3": 7.81, "m6": 49.03, "name": "South Korea", "symbol": "EWY", "w1": 4.81, "y1": 158.48, "ytd": 94.27 }, { "d1": -0.71, "last_close": 37.86, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 5.72, "m3": 11.32, "m6": 4.36, "name": "Brazil", "symbol": "EWZ", "w1": 6.5, "y1": 29.79, "ytd": 19.17 } ] }, "source_paths": [ "/data/country_performance/country_performance.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/country-performance" ], "caveats": [ "ETF returns are close-to-close total-price moves and do not establish a common catalyst." ] }, { "id": "stock-rusha", "domain": "stocks", "title": "RUSHA triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session -33.2% = -7.5σ vs its own year (mcap $3.1B); -36.5% day = -19.5σ (mcap $3.1B)", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 82.59, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session -33.2% = -7.5σ vs its own year (mcap $3.1B)", "score": -7.53, "symbol": "RUSHA", "value": -33.2 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-01", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "-36.5% day = -19.5σ (mcap $3.1B)", "score": -19.49, "symbol": "RUSHA", "value": -36.55 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/RUSHA.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=RUSHA" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "positioning-nasdaq", "domain": "positioning", "title": "E-mini Nasdaq-100 positioning made an unusual weekly move", "why_now": "The tracked trader group changed its net position by +27140 contracts; the move ranks at the 91.7th percentile by absolute size, while the current COT index is 81.9.", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "score": 82.12515180265656, "facts": { "category": "Leveraged Funds", "group": "Equity Index", "history_changes": 1054, "latest": { "cot_index": 81.9, "date": "2026-09-01", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 71877, "dealer": -78774, "lev_money": -14092 }, "long": 55361, "net": -14092, "net_pct_oi": -4.7, "oi": 300140, "price": 29125.5, "short": 69453 }, "name": "E-mini Nasdaq-100", "previous": { "cot_index": 38.1, "date": "2026-08-25", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 73216, "dealer": -63248, "lev_money": -41232 }, "long": 51841, "net": -41232, "net_pct_oi": -13.65, "oi": 301987, "price": 29276.75, "short": 93073 }, "slug": "nasdaq", "weekly_abs_change_percentile": 91.74573055028463, "weekly_change_percentile": 96.1100569259962, "weekly_net_change": 27140 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/cot/nasdaq.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/commitment-of-traders" ], "caveats": [ "Friday's CFTC release describes positions as of Tuesday, so it cannot explain trading later in the week." ] }, { "id": "market-dispersion", "domain": "market", "title": "The index hid a wide stock-level week", "why_now": "Large-stock weekly return dispersion reached the 76.2th percentile of its history.", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 80.48, "facts": { "end": { "avg_abs": 2.98, "date": "2026-09-04", "movers_dn": [ { "ret": -10.32, "symbol": "PANW" }, { "ret": -6.42, "symbol": "PLTR" }, { "ret": -5.79, "symbol": "UNP" }, { "ret": -5.26, "symbol": "SCCO" }, { "ret": -5.16, "symbol": "RTX" } ], "movers_up": [ { "ret": 17.17, "symbol": "SNDK" }, { "ret": 14.98, "symbol": "DELL" }, { "ret": 10.03, "symbol": "DE" }, { "ret": 9.17, "symbol": "MU" }, { "ret": 7.07, "symbol": "INTC" } ], "n_names": 100, "pctile": 76.2, "rank": 195, "sd": 4.04, "spy_week": 0.11, "state": "Elevated", "z": 0.47 }, "start": { "aa": 2.44, "d": "2026-08-28", "n": 100, "sd": 3.56, "spy": 0.47 } }, "source_paths": [ "/data/dispersion/return_dispersion.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/return-dispersion" ], "caveats": [ "Dispersion measures separation, not market direction." ] }, { "id": "positioning-russell", "domain": "positioning", "title": "E-mini Russell 2000 positioning made an unusual weekly move", "why_now": "The tracked trader group changed its net position by -11799 contracts; the move ranks at the 73.1th percentile by absolute size, while the current COT index is 2.6.", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "score": 77.26796610169491, "facts": { "category": "Leveraged Funds", "group": "Equity Index", "history_changes": 590, "latest": { "cot_index": 2.6, "date": "2026-09-01", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 17498, "dealer": 96593, "lev_money": -109499 }, "long": 52898, "net": -109499, "net_pct_oi": -25.78, "oi": 424663, "price": 2924.7, "short": 162397 }, "name": "E-mini Russell 2000", "previous": { "cot_index": 5.8, "date": "2026-08-25", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 12331, "dealer": 83908, "lev_money": -97700 }, "long": 50922, "net": -97700, "net_pct_oi": -23.66, "oi": 413000, "price": 3014.4, "short": 148622 }, "slug": "russell", "weekly_abs_change_percentile": 73.05084745762711, "weekly_change_percentile": 13.220338983050848, "weekly_net_change": -11799 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/cot/russell.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/commitment-of-traders" ], "caveats": [ "Friday's CFTC release describes positions as of Tuesday, so it cannot explain trading later in the week." ] }, { "id": "stock-eix", "domain": "stocks", "title": "EIX triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session -19.1% = -5.6σ vs its own year (mcap $21.8B); -23.1% day = -14.2σ (mcap $21.8B); +8.9% day = 5.4σ (mcap $21.8B)", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 76.68, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session -19.1% = -5.6σ vs its own year (mcap $21.8B)", "score": -5.56, "symbol": "EIX", "value": -19.1 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-31", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "-23.1% day = -14.2σ (mcap $21.8B)", "score": -14.17, "symbol": "EIX", "value": -23.07 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-01", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "+8.9% day = 5.4σ (mcap $21.8B)", "score": 5.39, "symbol": "EIX", "value": 8.93 } }, { "category": "volume", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "volume", "note": "5-session volume 5.2x its prior quarter (mcap $21.8B, 5s -19.1%)", "score": 5.19, "symbol": "EIX", "value": 5.19 } }, { "category": "gaps", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-31", "kind": "gap", "note": "-20.6% overnight gap, UNFILLED (mcap $21.8B)", "score": 20.61, "symbol": "EIX", "value": -20.61 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/EIX.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=EIX" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "stock-rare", "domain": "stocks", "title": "RARE triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session -40.3% = -4.7σ vs its own year (mcap $1.5B); -44.0% day = -10.4σ (mcap $1.5B); 5-session volume 4.1x its prior quarter (mcap $1.5B, 5s -40.3%)", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 74.01, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session -40.3% = -4.7σ vs its own year (mcap $1.5B)", "score": -4.67, "symbol": "RARE", "value": -40.26 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-03", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "-44.0% day = -10.4σ (mcap $1.5B)", "score": -10.4, "symbol": "RARE", "value": -44.03 } }, { "category": "volume", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "volume", "note": "5-session volume 4.1x its prior quarter (mcap $1.5B, 5s -40.3%)", "score": 4.12, "symbol": "RARE", "value": 4.12 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/RARE.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=RARE" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "stock-cnh", "domain": "stocks", "title": "CNH triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session +23.3% = 4.5σ vs its own year (mcap $17.9B); 5-session volume 4.5x its prior quarter (mcap $17.9B, 5s +23.3%); fresh 252-session HIGH on a +23% week (mcap $17.9B)", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 73.47, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session +23.3% = 4.5σ vs its own year (mcap $17.9B)", "score": 4.49, "symbol": "CNH", "value": 23.29 } }, { "category": "volume", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "volume", "note": "5-session volume 4.5x its prior quarter (mcap $17.9B, 5s +23.3%)", "score": 4.45, "symbol": "CNH", "value": 4.45 } }, { "category": "breaks", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "high_252", "note": "fresh 252-session HIGH on a +23% week (mcap $17.9B)", "score": 17.9482272192, "symbol": "CNH", "value": 14.4 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/CNH.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=CNH" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "stock-pcg", "domain": "stocks", "title": "PCG triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session -13.9% = -4.2σ vs its own year (mcap $31.4B); -20.1% day = -11.9σ (mcap $31.4B); 5-session volume 4.8x its prior quarter (mcap $31.4B, 5s -13.9%)", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 72.53999999999999, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session -13.9% = -4.2σ vs its own year (mcap $31.4B)", "score": -4.18, "symbol": "PCG", "value": -13.86 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-31", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "-20.1% day = -11.9σ (mcap $31.4B)", "score": -11.94, "symbol": "PCG", "value": -20.06 } }, { "category": "volume", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "volume", "note": "5-session volume 4.8x its prior quarter (mcap $31.4B, 5s -13.9%)", "score": 4.79, "symbol": "PCG", "value": 4.79 } }, { "category": "gaps", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-31", "kind": "gap", "note": "-20.1% overnight gap, UNFILLED (mcap $31.4B)", "score": 20.12, "symbol": "PCG", "value": -20.12 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/PCG.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=PCG" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "stock-giii", "domain": "stocks", "title": "GIII triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session -17.1% = -4.1σ vs its own year (mcap $1.2B); -11.5% day = -5.6σ (mcap $1.2B)", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 72.39, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session -17.1% = -4.1σ vs its own year (mcap $1.2B)", "score": -4.13, "symbol": "GIII", "value": -17.1 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-02", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "-11.5% day = -5.6σ (mcap $1.2B)", "score": -5.56, "symbol": "GIII", "value": -11.5 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/GIII.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=GIII" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "stock-blte", "domain": "stocks", "title": "BLTE triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session +27.6% = 3.9σ vs its own year (mcap $7.3B)", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 71.76, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session +27.6% = 3.9σ vs its own year (mcap $7.3B)", "score": 3.92, "symbol": "BLTE", "value": 27.61 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/BLTE.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=BLTE" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "stock-tars", "domain": "stocks", "title": "TARS triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session +26.5% = 3.9σ vs its own year (mcap $3.9B); +11.8% day = 4.2σ (mcap $3.9B)", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 71.7, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-04", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session +26.5% = 3.9σ vs its own year (mcap $3.9B)", "score": 3.9, "symbol": "TARS", "value": 26.51 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-09-02", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "+11.8% day = 4.2σ (mcap $3.9B)", "score": 4.22, "symbol": "TARS", "value": 11.76 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/TARS.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=TARS" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "positioning-ust2y", "domain": "positioning", "title": "2-Year T-Note positioning made an unusual weekly move", "why_now": "The tracked trader group changed its net position by -35281 contracts; the move ranks at the 60.1th percentile by absolute size, while the current COT index is 98.7.", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "score": 70.57630929791272, "facts": { "category": "Leveraged Funds", "group": "Rates", "history_changes": 1054, "latest": { "cot_index": 98.7, "date": "2026-09-01", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 1596436, "dealer": -434362, "lev_money": -1268034 }, "long": 615140, "net": -1268034, "net_pct_oi": -29.16, "oi": 4348838, "price": 102.5273, "short": 1883174 }, "name": "2-Year T-Note", "previous": { "cot_index": 100.0, "date": "2026-08-25", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 1608856, "dealer": -451596, "lev_money": -1232753 }, "long": 627120, "net": -1232753, "net_pct_oi": -26.35, "oi": 4678195, "price": 102.8594, "short": 1859873 }, "slug": "ust2y", "weekly_abs_change_percentile": 60.05692599620493, "weekly_change_percentile": 20.77798861480076, "weekly_net_change": -35281 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/cot/ust2y.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/commitment-of-traders" ], "caveats": [ "Friday's CFTC release describes positions as of Tuesday, so it cannot explain trading later in the week." ] }, { "id": "series-margin-debt", "domain": "macro", "title": "margin-debt reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "margin-debt.debit_mom: lowest in the full 29-year record (-84847.0000 vs prior min -80384.0000)", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "score": 70.20970813369838, "facts": { "audience": "both", "column": "debit_mom", "date": "2026-07-01", "history_start": "1997-02-01", "kind": "record_low", "note": "margin-debt.debit_mom: lowest in the full 29-year record (-84847.0000 vs prior min -80384.0000)", "points": 354, "prev": -80384.0, "score": 70.20970813369838, "slug": "margin-debt", "value": -84847.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/margin-debt.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/margin-debt" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "positioning-ust10y", "domain": "positioning", "title": "10-Year T-Note positioning made an unusual weekly move", "why_now": "The tracked trader group changed its net position by +71837 contracts; the move ranks at the 74.0th percentile by absolute size, while the current COT index is 25.8.", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "score": 69.67208728652751, "facts": { "category": "Leveraged Funds", "group": "Rates", "history_changes": 1054, "latest": { "cot_index": 25.8, "date": "2026-09-01", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 2604213, "dealer": -587097, "lev_money": -2062502 }, "long": 376506, "net": -2062502, "net_pct_oi": -39.09, "oi": 5276634, "price": 107.375, "short": 2439008 }, "name": "10-Year T-Note", "previous": { "cot_index": 20.6, "date": "2026-08-25", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 2592072, "dealer": -580307, "lev_money": -2134339 }, "long": 316808, "net": -2134339, "net_pct_oi": -34.38, "oi": 6208739, "price": 108.4062, "short": 2451147 }, "slug": "ust10y", "weekly_abs_change_percentile": 74.00379506641366, "weekly_change_percentile": 87.4762808349146, "weekly_net_change": 71837 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/cot/ust10y.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/commitment-of-traders" ], "caveats": [ "Friday's CFTC release describes positions as of Tuesday, so it cannot explain trading later in the week." ] }, { "id": "series-crack-spread", "domain": "macro", "title": "crack-spread reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "crack-spread.crack_200d_ma: highest in the full 19-year record (44.6500 vs prior max 44.4800)", "as_of": "2026-09-01", "score": 68.82614647501711, "facts": { "audience": "both", "column": "crack_200d_ma", "date": "2026-09-01", "history_start": "2007-09-12", "kind": "record_high", "note": "crack-spread.crack_200d_ma: highest in the full 19-year record (44.6500 vs prior max 44.4800)", "points": 3939, "prev": 44.48, "score": 68.82614647501711, "slug": "crack-spread", "value": 44.65 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/crack-spread.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/crack-spread" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "breadth-short-term", "domain": "market", "title": "Short-term participation deteriorated", "why_now": "The share of stocks above their 10-day average fell from 38.88% to 47.04% (+8.16 points).", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 68.16, "facts": { "end": { "date": "2026-09-04", "pct_above_100d": 50.39, "pct_above_10d": 47.04, "pct_above_200d": 52.9, "pct_above_50d": 47.54, "spy_close": 770.19 }, "start": { "date": "2026-08-28", "pct_above_100d": 51.67, "pct_above_10d": 38.88, "pct_above_200d": 53.62, "pct_above_50d": 48.29, "spy_close": 769.35 } }, "source_paths": [ "/data/market_breadth/market_breadth.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/market-breadth" ], "caveats": [ "This cross-section uses the current common-stock universe and is best read as a point-in-time breadth measure." ] }, { "id": "dashboard-tape", "domain": "market", "title": "The short-horizon tape changed character", "why_now": "The score moved from 48 to 56 this week (+8).", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 68.0, "facts": { "change": 8.0, "end": { "date": "2026-09-04", "score": 56.0 }, "labels": { "band": "contested", "headline": null, "tone": "neutral", "word": "Contested" }, "start": { "date": "2026-08-28", "score": 48.0 } }, "source_paths": [ "/data/tape_score/tape_score.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/tape-tracker" ], "caveats": [ "Scores summarize different horizons and should not be averaged into one signal." ] }, { "id": "performance-crypto", "domain": "cross_asset", "title": "Crypto leadership split sharply this week", "why_now": "LTCC led at +3.17%, while BSOL returned -1.41%, a 4.58-point spread.", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 67.824, "facts": { "laggard": { "d1": -3.53, "last_close": 13.95, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 40.34, "m3": 62.4, "m6": 23.02, "name": "Solana", "symbol": "BSOL", "w1": -1.41, "y1": null, "ytd": -14.94 }, "leader": { "d1": -1.83, "last_close": 12.36, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 12.06, "m3": 17.6, "m6": -6.08, "name": "Litecoin", "symbol": "LTCC", "w1": 3.17, "y1": null, "ytd": -34.15 }, "ranked": [ { "d1": -3.53, "last_close": 13.95, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 40.34, "m3": 62.4, "m6": 23.02, "name": "Solana", "symbol": "BSOL", "w1": -1.41, "y1": null, "ytd": -14.94 }, { "d1": -2.63, "last_close": 18.52, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 28.52, "m3": 56.02, "m6": 24.05, "name": "Ethereum", "symbol": "ETHA", "w1": 0.82, "y1": -42.66, "ytd": -17.43 }, { "d1": -4.87, "last_close": 7.62, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 34.63, "m3": 24.51, "m6": -1.55, "name": "XRP", "symbol": "XRPI", "w1": 1.6, "y1": -55.36, "ytd": -27.91 }, { "d1": -2.48, "last_close": 51.95, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 25.63, "m3": 35.32, "m6": 16.66, "name": "Bitwise 10 Crypto Index (benchmark)", "symbol": "BITW", "w1": 2.53, "y1": -31.28, "ytd": -11.59 }, { "d1": -2.42, "last_close": 45.23, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 23.95, "m3": 32.48, "m6": 17.18, "name": "Bitcoin", "symbol": "IBIT", "w1": 3.03, "y1": -27.46, "ytd": -8.9 }, { "d1": -1.83, "last_close": 12.36, "last_date": "2026-09-04", "m1": 12.06, "m3": 17.6, "m6": -6.08, "name": "Litecoin", "symbol": "LTCC", "w1": 3.17, "y1": null, "ytd": -34.15 } ] }, "source_paths": [ "/data/crypto_performance/crypto_performance.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/crypto-performance" ], "caveats": [ "ETF returns are close-to-close total-price moves and do not establish a common catalyst." ] }, { "id": "performance-sector", "domain": "cross_asset", "title": "Sector leadership split sharply this week", "why_now": "XLE led at +2.20%, while XLY returned -1.96%, a 4.16-point spread.", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 66.648, "facts": { "laggard": { "d1": -1.33, "last_close": 114.91, "m1": -2.7, "m3": 0.04, "m6": 0.41, "name": "Consumer Discretionary", "symbol": "XLY", "w1": -1.96, "y1": -2.27, "ytd": -3.77 }, "leader": { "d1": -0.87, "last_close": 64.06, "m1": 10.14, "m3": 11.08, "m6": 13.24, "name": "Energy", "symbol": "XLE", "w1": 2.2, "y1": 43.83, "ytd": 43.28 }, "ranked": [ { "d1": -1.33, "last_close": 114.91, "m1": -2.7, "m3": 0.04, "m6": 0.41, "name": "Consumer Discretionary", "symbol": "XLY", "w1": -1.96, "y1": -2.27, "ytd": -3.77 }, { "d1": -0.34, "last_close": 52.44, "m1": 0.52, "m3": 3.57, "m6": 5.17, "name": "Materials", "symbol": "XLB", "w1": -1.39, "y1": 14.85, "ytd": 15.63 }, { "d1": -0.72, "last_close": 43.93, "m1": -1.96, "m3": -1.72, "m6": 2.42, "name": "Real Estate", "symbol": "XLRE", "w1": -1.24, "y1": 5.2, "ytd": 8.87 }, { "d1": 0.41, "last_close": 175.27, "m1": -5.14, "m3": 0.63, "m6": 3.14, "name": "Industrials", "symbol": "XLI", "w1": -1.06, "y1": 15.7, "ytd": 12.99 }, { "d1": -0.8, "last_close": 84.58, "m1": -0.62, "m3": 1.37, "m6": -1.4, "name": "Consumer Staples", "symbol": "XLP", "w1": -1.02, "y1": 4.89, "ytd": 8.88 }, { "d1": -1.19, "last_close": 112.03, "m1": 0.76, "m3": 0.32, "m6": -4.62, "name": "Communication Services", "symbol": "XLC", "w1": -0.85, "y1": -1.8, "ytd": -4.83 }, { "d1": -0.79, "last_close": 58.1, "m1": 0.52, "m3": 11.09, "m6": 14.89, "name": "Financials", "symbol": "XLF", "w1": 0.0, "y1": 7.47, "ytd": 6.08 }, { "d1": -0.39, "last_close": 770.19, "m1": 0.21, "m3": 4.43, "m6": 14.55, "name": "S&P 500 (benchmark)", "symbol": "SPY", "w1": 0.11, "y1": 18.65, "ytd": 12.94 }, { "d1": -1.04, "last_close": 171.45, "m1": 4.26, "m3": 12.05, "m6": 12.28, "name": "Health Care", "symbol": "XLV", "w1": 0.17, "y1": 24.75, "ytd": 10.76 }, { "d1": 0.12, "last_close": 43.08, "m1": -0.69, "m3": -2.86, "m6": -7.83, "name": "Utilities", "symbol": "XLU", "w1": 0.82, "y1": 2.89, "ytd": 0.91 }, { "d1": 0.7, "last_close": 187.28, "m1": 1.05, "m3": 3.87, "m6": 36.41, "name": "Technology", "symbol": "XLK", "w1": 0.86, "y1": 42.61, "ytd": 30.08 }, { "d1": -0.87, "last_close": 64.06, "m1": 10.14, "m3": 11.08, "m6": 13.24, "name": "Energy", "symbol": "XLE", "w1": 2.2, "y1": 43.83, "ytd": 43.28 } ] }, "source_paths": [ "/data/sector_performance/sector_performance.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/sector-performance" ], "caveats": [ "ETF returns are close-to-close total-price moves and do not establish a common catalyst." ] }, { "id": "series-australia-10-year-yield", "domain": "macro", "title": "australia-10-year-yield reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "australia-10-year-yield.yield_10y: highest in 10 years (5.2200)", "as_of": "2026-09-02", "score": 65.0, "facts": { "audience": "both", "column": "yield_10y", "date": "2026-09-02", "history_start": "1969-07-01", "kind": "record_high_10y", "note": "australia-10-year-yield.yield_10y: highest in 10 years (5.2200)", "points": 3873, "prev": 5.169, "score": 65.0, "slug": "australia-10-year-yield", "value": 5.22 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/australia-10-year-yield.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/australia-10-year-yield" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "series-uk-10-year-yield", "domain": "macro", "title": "uk-10-year-yield reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "uk-10-year-yield.yield_10y: highest in 10 years (5.2420)", "as_of": "2026-09-02", "score": 65.0, "facts": { "audience": "both", "column": "yield_10y", "date": "2026-09-02", "history_start": "1960-01-01", "kind": "record_high_10y", "note": "uk-10-year-yield.yield_10y: highest in 10 years (5.2420)", "points": 11554, "prev": 5.214, "score": 65.0, "slug": "uk-10-year-yield", "value": 5.242 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/uk-10-year-yield.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/uk-10-year-yield" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "series-business-applications", "domain": "macro", "title": "business-applications reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "business-applications.applications_value: highest in the full 22-year record (578926.0000 vs prior max 546719.0000)", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "score": 62.63034445585217, "facts": { "audience": "professionals", "column": "applications_value", "date": "2026-07-01", "history_start": "2004-07-01", "kind": "record_high", "note": "business-applications.applications_value: highest in the full 22-year record (578926.0000 vs prior max 546719.0000)", "points": 265, "prev": 546719.0, "score": 62.63034445585217, "slug": "business-applications", "value": 578926.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/business-applications.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/business-applications" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "series-business-applications-quality", "domain": "macro", "title": "business-applications-quality reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "business-applications-quality.total: highest in the full 22-year record (578926.0000 vs prior max 546719.0000)", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "score": 62.63034445585217, "facts": { "audience": "professionals", "column": "total", "date": "2026-07-01", "history_start": "2004-07-01", "kind": "record_high", "note": "business-applications-quality.total: highest in the full 22-year record (578926.0000 vs prior max 546719.0000)", "points": 265, "prev": 546719.0, "score": 62.63034445585217, "slug": "business-applications-quality", "value": 578926.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/business-applications-quality.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/business-applications-quality" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "dashboard-fear-greed", "domain": "market", "title": "Market mood cooled rapidly", "why_now": "Fear & Greed fell from 49.66 to 45.58, a -4.08-point weekly change.", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 62.08, "facts": { "end": { "date": "2026-09-04", "value": 45.58, "zone": "Neutral" }, "start": { "date": "2026-08-28", "value": 49.66 } }, "source_paths": [ "/data/fear_greed/fear_greed.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/fear-greed-index" ], "caveats": [ "Sentiment is descriptive and can remain greedy or fearful for extended periods." ] }, { "id": "dashboard-jobs", "domain": "market", "title": "The jobs score did not confirm a layoff break", "why_now": "The score moved from 63 to 67 this week (+4).", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 60.0, "facts": { "change": 4.0, "end": { "date": "2026-09-04", "score": 67.0 }, "labels": { "band": null, "headline": "Stable, but hiring is weak", "tone": "calm", "word": "Stable" }, "start": { "date": "2026-08-28", "score": 63.0 } }, "source_paths": [ "/data/jobs_tracker/jobs_tracker.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/jobs-tracker" ], "caveats": [ "Scores summarize different horizons and should not be averaged into one signal." ] }, { "id": "dashboard-cycle", "domain": "market", "title": "The market-cycle structure barely moved", "why_now": "The score moved from 71 to 70 this week (-1).", "as_of": "2026-09-04", "score": 54.0, "facts": { "change": -1.0, "end": { "date": "2026-09-04", "score": 70.0 }, "labels": { "band": "broad", "headline": null, "tone": "calm", "word": "Broad advance" }, "start": { "date": "2026-08-28", "score": 71.0 } }, "source_paths": [ "/data/cycle_score/cycle_score.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/cycle-tracker" ], "caveats": [ "Scores summarize different horizons and should not be averaged into one signal." ] } ] }