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"caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "performance-country", "domain": "cross_asset", "title": "Country-market leadership split sharply this week", "why_now": "EZA led at +7.37%, while EWJ returned -3.09%, a 10.46-point spread.", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 84.288, "facts": { "laggard": { "d1": 0.97, "last_close": 95.18, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 4.48, "m3": 4.17, "m6": 4.06, "name": "Japan", "symbol": "EWJ", "w1": -3.09, "y1": 19.51, "ytd": 17.88 }, "leader": { "d1": 2.89, "last_close": 72.51, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 19.99, "m3": 6.23, "m6": -6.14, "name": "South Africa", "symbol": "EZA", "w1": 7.37, "y1": 26.97, "ytd": 5.39 }, "ranked": [ { "d1": 0.97, "last_close": 95.18, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 4.48, "m3": 4.17, "m6": 4.06, "name": "Japan", "symbol": "EWJ", "w1": -3.09, "y1": 19.51, "ytd": 17.88 }, { "d1": 0.7, "last_close": 69.46, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 3.52, "m3": 3.95, "m6": 9.94, "name": "Netherlands", "symbol": "EWN", "w1": -3.0, "y1": 29.64, "ytd": 21.8 }, { "d1": 0.22, "last_close": 104.3, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 4.47, "m3": 10.41, "m6": 40.23, "name": "Taiwan", "symbol": "EWT", "w1": -2.59, "y1": 77.44, "ytd": 64.17 }, { "d1": 0.0, "last_close": 25.23, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 0.52, "m3": 2.44, "m6": -7.11, "name": "Philippines", "symbol": "EPHE", "w1": -1.56, "y1": -4.25, "ytd": 1.24 }, { "d1": 0.85, "last_close": 43.68, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 4.5, "m3": 9.89, "m6": 11.97, "name": "Austria", "symbol": "EWO", "w1": -1.38, "y1": 36.54, "ytd": 23.15 }, { "d1": 0.23, "last_close": 47.0, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 5.17, "m3": 3.3, "m6": -1.43, "name": "France", "symbol": "EWQ", "w1": -0.99, "y1": 6.89, "ytd": 4.47 }, { "d1": 0.53, "last_close": 160.81, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 4.19, "m3": 3.29, "m6": 8.93, "name": "MSCI All-Country World (benchmark)", "symbol": "ACWI", "w1": -0.91, "y1": 21.32, "ytd": 13.65 }, { "d1": 0.1, "last_close": 178.34, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 2.58, "m3": -4.33, "m6": 25.7, "name": "South Korea", "symbol": "EWY", "w1": -0.78, "y1": 149.92, "ytd": 83.44 }, { "d1": 0.18, "last_close": 62.91, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 5.34, "m3": 6.66, "m6": 10.74, "name": "Italy", "symbol": "EWI", "w1": -0.57, "y1": 21.71, "ytd": 15.79 }, { "d1": 0.18, "last_close": 49.64, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 4.22, "m3": 3.35, "m6": -7.08, "name": "India", "symbol": "INDA", "w1": -0.28, "y1": -7.73, "ytd": -8.16 }, { "d1": 0.57, "last_close": 44.42, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 8.93, "m3": 11.72, "m6": 17.48, "name": "Poland", "symbol": "EPOL", "w1": -0.07, "y1": 31.5, "ytd": 26.23 }, { "d1": 0.64, "last_close": 44.2, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 8.89, "m3": 2.67, "m6": -0.27, "name": "Germany", "symbol": "EWG", "w1": 0.09, "y1": 4.27, "ytd": 4.0 }, { "d1": 1.04, "last_close": 62.92, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 6.61, "m3": 9.64, "m6": 10.35, "name": "Spain", "symbol": "EWP", "w1": 0.11, "y1": 29.28, "ytd": 16.71 }, { "d1": 0.96, "last_close": 62.36, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 6.02, "m3": 6.45, "m6": 9.1, "name": "Canada", "symbol": "EWC", "w1": 0.21, "y1": 32.37, "ytd": 15.63 }, { "d1": 0.45, "last_close": 33.77, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 7.41, "m3": 14.44, "m6": 14.75, "name": "Singapore", "symbol": "EWS", "w1": 0.27, "y1": 22.0, "ytd": 22.76 }, { "d1": 2.16, "last_close": 12.77, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 2.98, "m3": -2.37, "m6": -29.29, "name": "Indonesia", "symbol": "EIDO", "w1": 1.35, "y1": -31.34, "ytd": -31.71 }, { "d1": 1.46, "last_close": 53.63, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 7.91, "m3": 2.66, "m6": -0.69, "name": "Sweden", "symbol": "EWD", "w1": 1.38, "y1": 15.46, "ytd": 8.94 }, { "d1": 0.82, "last_close": 48.94, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 4.8, "m3": 3.38, "m6": 1.87, "name": "United Kingdom", "symbol": "EWU", "w1": 1.41, "y1": 17.31, "ytd": 11.28 }, { "d1": 1.31, "last_close": 30.14, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 5.79, "m3": 3.97, "m6": 1.48, "name": "Australia", "symbol": "EWA", "w1": 1.65, "y1": 12.88, "ytd": 15.08 }, { "d1": 0.97, "last_close": 64.36, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 4.02, "m3": 2.4, "m6": -0.03, "name": "Switzerland", "symbol": "EWL", "w1": 1.72, "y1": 15.92, "ytd": 7.34 }, { "d1": 0.27, "last_close": 55.66, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 4.33, "m3": -0.54, "m6": -8.77, "name": "China", "symbol": "MCHI", "w1": 1.89, "y1": -7.11, "ytd": -7.34 }, { "d1": 1.43, "last_close": 84.5, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 12.25, "m3": 18.31, "m6": 19.18, "name": "Greece", "symbol": "GREK", "w1": 1.99, "y1": 29.2, "ytd": 28.21 }, { "d1": 0.56, "last_close": 92.81, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": -1.38, "m3": 0.81, "m6": -2.82, "name": "Argentina", "symbol": "ARGT", "w1": 2.02, "y1": 14.37, "ytd": 1.53 }, { "d1": 0.81, "last_close": 28.66, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 3.06, "m3": -2.22, "m6": -4.88, "name": "Malaysia", "symbol": "EWM", "w1": 2.36, "y1": 13.78, "ytd": 4.75 }, { "d1": 1.63, "last_close": 74.76, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 3.25, "m3": 3.2, "m6": 3.26, "name": "Thailand", "symbol": "THD", "w1": 2.66, "y1": 30.09, "ytd": 25.29 }, { "d1": 1.94, "last_close": 41.44, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 7.3, "m3": 1.69, "m6": -4.91, "name": "Chile", "symbol": "ECH", "w1": 2.78, "y1": 29.34, "ytd": 2.57 }, { "d1": 1.07, "last_close": 40.74, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 3.3, "m3": 10.98, "m6": -2.18, "name": "Turkey", "symbol": "TUR", "w1": 2.9, "y1": 16.27, "ytd": 18.36 }, { "d1": 2.49, "last_close": 77.38, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 3.17, "m3": -0.54, "m6": -4.74, "name": "Mexico", "symbol": "EWW", "w1": 3.16, "y1": 26.5, "ytd": 11.61 }, { "d1": 2.69, "last_close": 35.06, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": -3.07, "m3": -5.27, "m6": -10.95, "name": "Brazil", "symbol": "EWZ", "w1": 3.42, "y1": 26.62, "ytd": 10.36 }, { "d1": 1.28, "last_close": 27.66, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 3.63, "m3": 2.44, "m6": 1.06, "name": "Belgium", "symbol": "EWK", "w1": 3.91, "y1": 19.53, "ytd": 13.83 }, { "d1": 4.2, "last_close": 17.87, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 7.26, "m3": -5.85, "m6": -7.36, "name": "Vietnam", "symbol": "VNM", "w1": 4.14, "y1": 1.02, "ytd": -6.34 }, { "d1": 1.74, "last_close": 23.35, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 4.06, "m3": -2.01, "m6": -1.73, "name": "Hong Kong", "symbol": "EWH", "w1": 4.29, "y1": 10.4, "ytd": 9.88 }, { "d1": 2.89, "last_close": 72.51, "last_date": "2026-08-21", "m1": 19.99, "m3": 6.23, "m6": -6.14, "name": "South Africa", "symbol": "EZA", "w1": 7.37, "y1": 26.97, "ytd": 5.39 } ] }, "source_paths": [ "/data/country_performance/country_performance.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/country-performance" ], "caveats": [ "ETF returns are close-to-close total-price moves and do not establish a common catalyst." ] }, { "id": "series-crack-spread", "domain": "macro", "title": "crack-spread reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "crack-spread.crack_200d_ma: highest in the full 19-year record (42.6200 vs prior max 42.4000)", "as_of": "2026-08-18", "score": 82.63947262149212, "facts": { "audience": "both", "column": "crack_200d_ma", "date": "2026-08-18", "history_start": "2007-09-12", "kind": "record_high", "note": "crack-spread.crack_200d_ma: highest in the full 19-year record (42.6200 vs prior max 42.4000)", "points": 3929, "prev": 42.4, "score": 82.63947262149212, "slug": "crack-spread", "value": 42.62 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/crack-spread.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/crack-spread" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "performance-sector", "domain": "cross_asset", "title": "Sector leadership split sharply this week", "why_now": "XLV led at +4.33%, while XLK returned -3.53%, a 7.86-point spread.", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 77.008, "facts": { "laggard": { "d1": 0.11, "last_close": 183.31, "m1": 2.72, "m3": 2.64, "m6": 30.12, "name": "Technology", "symbol": "XLK", "w1": -3.53, "y1": 41.08, "ytd": 27.33 }, "leader": { "d1": 1.29, "last_close": 174.62, "m1": 8.16, "m3": 17.87, "m6": 11.35, "name": "Health Care", "symbol": "XLV", "w1": 4.33, "y1": 27.0, "ytd": 12.8 }, "ranked": [ { "d1": 0.11, "last_close": 183.31, "m1": 2.72, "m3": 2.64, "m6": 30.12, "name": "Technology", "symbol": "XLK", "w1": -3.53, "y1": 41.08, "ytd": 27.33 }, { "d1": -2.28, "last_close": 42.77, "m1": -7.4, "m3": -4.96, "m6": -7.68, "name": "Utilities", "symbol": "XLU", "w1": -3.48, "y1": -0.74, "ytd": 0.19 }, { "d1": 0.27, "last_close": 180.25, "m1": -0.93, "m3": 5.7, "m6": 1.7, "name": "Industrials", "symbol": "XLI", "w1": -3.36, "y1": 19.2, "ytd": 16.2 }, { "d1": 0.65, "last_close": 111.4, "m1": 5.71, "m3": -4.05, "m6": -4.62, "name": "Communication Services", "symbol": "XLC", "w1": -1.37, "y1": 1.41, "ytd": -5.37 }, { "d1": 0.41, "last_close": 765.72, "m1": 3.73, "m3": 3.1, "m6": 11.07, "name": "S&P 500 (benchmark)", "symbol": "SPY", "w1": -1.37, "y1": 20.0, "ytd": 12.29 }, { "d1": 0.93, "last_close": 57.48, "m1": 2.96, "m3": 11.12, "m6": 9.51, "name": "Financials", "symbol": "XLF", "w1": -1.17, "y1": 8.72, "ytd": 4.95 }, { "d1": 0.0, "last_close": 45.08, "m1": 0.29, "m3": 1.3, "m6": 3.49, "name": "Real Estate", "symbol": "XLRE", "w1": -0.42, "y1": 7.77, "ytd": 11.72 }, { "d1": 1.15, "last_close": 118.02, "m1": 8.51, "m3": -0.57, "m6": 0.49, "name": "Consumer Discretionary", "symbol": "XLY", "w1": -0.15, "y1": 3.72, "ytd": -1.16 }, { "d1": 0.79, "last_close": 85.99, "m1": 3.34, "m3": 1.57, "m6": -2.16, "name": "Consumer Staples", "symbol": "XLP", "w1": -0.12, "y1": 3.33, "ytd": 10.7 }, { "d1": 2.14, "last_close": 53.54, "m1": 6.46, "m3": 7.04, "m6": 1.1, "name": "Materials", "symbol": "XLB", "w1": 1.9, "y1": 18.82, "ytd": 18.06 }, { "d1": -0.17, "last_close": 63.64, "m1": 7.17, "m3": 7.63, "m6": 15.96, "name": "Energy", "symbol": "XLE", "w1": 2.79, "y1": 48.34, "ytd": 42.34 }, { "d1": 1.29, "last_close": 174.62, "m1": 8.16, "m3": 17.87, "m6": 11.35, "name": "Health Care", "symbol": "XLV", "w1": 4.33, "y1": 27.0, "ytd": 12.8 } ] }, "source_paths": [ "/data/sector_performance/sector_performance.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/sector-performance" ], "caveats": [ "ETF returns are close-to-close total-price moves and do not establish a common catalyst." ] }, { "id": "stock-mrvi", "domain": "stocks", "title": "MRVI triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session +51.6% = 5.5σ vs its own year (mcap $1.3B); +25.8% day = 6.6σ (mcap $1.3B)", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 76.38, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-21", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session +51.6% = 5.5σ vs its own year (mcap $1.3B)", "score": 5.46, "symbol": "MRVI", "value": 51.58 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-19", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "+25.8% day = 6.6σ (mcap $1.3B)", "score": 6.58, "symbol": "MRVI", "value": 25.78 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/MRVI.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=MRVI" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "dashboard-fear-greed", "domain": "market", "title": "Market mood cooled rapidly", "why_now": "Fear & Greed fell from 80.78 to 62.61, a -18.17-point weekly change.", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 76.17, "facts": { "end": { "date": "2026-08-21", "value": 62.61, "zone": "Greed" }, "start": { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": 80.78 } }, "source_paths": [ "/data/fear_greed/fear_greed.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/fear-greed-index" ], "caveats": [ "Sentiment is descriptive and can remain greedy or fearful for extended periods." ] }, { "id": "breadth-short-term", "domain": "market", "title": "Short-term participation deteriorated", "why_now": "The share of stocks above their 10-day average fell from 60.96% to 45.59% (-15.37 points).", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 75.37, "facts": { "end": { "date": "2026-08-21", "pct_above_100d": 55.28, "pct_above_10d": 45.59, "pct_above_200d": 55.39, "pct_above_50d": 53.05, "spy_close": 765.72 }, "start": { "date": "2026-08-14", "pct_above_100d": 59.14, "pct_above_10d": 60.96, "pct_above_200d": 56.94, "pct_above_50d": 59.66, "spy_close": 776.34 } }, "source_paths": [ "/data/market_breadth/market_breadth.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/market-breadth" ], "caveats": [ "This cross-section uses the current common-stock universe and is best read as a point-in-time breadth measure." ] }, { "id": "stock-bntx", "domain": "stocks", "title": "BNTX triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session +25.2% = 5.0σ vs its own year (mcap $26.2B); +22.0% day = 8.5σ (mcap $26.2B); 5-session volume 3.5x its prior quarter (mcap $26.2B, 5s +25.2%)", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 75.15, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-21", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session +25.2% = 5.0σ vs its own year (mcap $26.2B)", "score": 5.05, "symbol": "BNTX", "value": 25.22 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-19", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "+22.0% day = 8.5σ (mcap $26.2B)", "score": 8.47, "symbol": "BNTX", "value": 21.96 } }, { "category": "volume", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-21", "kind": "volume", "note": "5-session volume 3.5x its prior quarter (mcap $26.2B, 5s +25.2%)", "score": 3.5, "symbol": "BNTX", "value": 3.5 } }, { "category": "gaps", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-19", "kind": "gap", "note": "+17.8% overnight gap, UNFILLED (mcap $26.2B)", "score": 17.83, "symbol": "BNTX", "value": 17.83 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/BNTX.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=BNTX" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "stock-argx", "domain": "stocks", "title": "ARGX triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session +22.1% = 5.0σ vs its own year (mcap $64.3B); +16.0% day = 8.3σ (mcap $64.3B); fresh 252-session HIGH on a +22% week (mcap $64.3B)", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 75.09, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-21", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session +22.1% = 5.0σ vs its own year (mcap $64.3B)", "score": 5.03, "symbol": "ARGX", "value": 22.14 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-17", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "+16.0% day = 8.3σ (mcap $64.3B)", "score": 8.29, "symbol": "ARGX", "value": 16.04 } }, { "category": "breaks", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-21", "kind": "high_252", "note": "fresh 252-session HIGH on a +22% week (mcap $64.3B)", "score": 64.34512789068, "symbol": "ARGX", "value": 1039.78 } }, { "category": "gaps", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-17", "kind": "gap", "note": "+8.9% overnight gap, UNFILLED (mcap $64.3B)", "score": 8.93, "symbol": "ARGX", "value": 8.93 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/ARGX.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=ARGX" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "stock-htht", "domain": "stocks", "title": "HTHT triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session +17.4% = 4.2σ vs its own year (mcap $15.1B); +11.3% day = 5.8σ (mcap $15.1B); +8.6% overnight gap, UNFILLED (mcap $15.1B)", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 72.6, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-21", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session +17.4% = 4.2σ vs its own year (mcap $15.1B)", "score": 4.2, "symbol": "HTHT", "value": 17.38 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-17", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "+11.3% day = 5.8σ (mcap $15.1B)", "score": 5.77, "symbol": "HTHT", "value": 11.29 } }, { "category": "gaps", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-17", "kind": "gap", "note": "+8.6% overnight gap, UNFILLED (mcap $15.1B)", "score": 8.62, "symbol": "HTHT", "value": 8.62 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/HTHT.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=HTHT" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "stock-ppc", "domain": "stocks", "title": "PPC triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session +15.6% = 4.1σ vs its own year (mcap $7.7B); +9.8% day = 5.0σ (mcap $7.7B)", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 72.39, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-21", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session +15.6% = 4.1σ vs its own year (mcap $7.7B)", "score": 4.13, "symbol": "PPC", "value": 15.59 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-19", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "+9.8% day = 5.0σ (mcap $7.7B)", "score": 4.98, "symbol": "PPC", "value": 9.79 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/PPC.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=PPC" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "stock-tem", "domain": "stocks", "title": "TEM triggered multiple weekly anomaly checks", "why_now": "5-session +39.5% = 4.0σ vs its own year (mcap $12.6B); +24.1% day = 5.8σ (mcap $12.6B); +13.4% overnight gap, UNFILLED (mcap $12.6B)", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 72.15, "facts": [ { "category": "moves", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-21", "kind": "move_5s", "note": "5-session +39.5% = 4.0σ vs its own year (mcap $12.6B)", "score": 4.05, "symbol": "TEM", "value": 39.52 } }, { "category": "days", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-19", "kind": "day_shock", "note": "+24.1% day = 5.8σ (mcap $12.6B)", "score": 5.76, "symbol": "TEM", "value": 24.09 } }, { "category": "gaps", "reading": { "date": "2026-08-19", "kind": "gap", "note": "+13.4% overnight gap, UNFILLED (mcap $12.6B)", "score": 13.41, "symbol": "TEM", "value": 13.41 } } ], "source_paths": [ "/data/anomalies/anomalies.json", "/data/csv/TEM.csv" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/chart?symbol=TEM" ], "caveats": [ "The anomaly score describes rarity against the security's own history; it is not a forecast." ] }, { "id": "positioning-ust10y", "domain": "positioning", "title": "10-Year T-Note positioning made an unusual weekly move", "why_now": "The tracked trader group changed its net position by -65299 contracts; the move ranks at the 70.2th percentile by absolute size, while the current COT index is 16.1.", "as_of": "2026-08-18", "score": 70.94865019011407, "facts": { "category": "Leveraged Funds", "group": "Rates", "history_changes": 1052, "latest": { "cot_index": 16.1, "date": "2026-08-18", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 2585495, "dealer": -489394, "lev_money": -2229013 }, "long": 352319, "net": -2229013, "net_pct_oi": -39.83, "oi": 5596739, "price": 108.5625, "short": 2581332 }, "name": "10-Year T-Note", "previous": { "cot_index": 17.4, "date": "2026-08-11", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 2554411, "dealer": -474266, "lev_money": -2163714 }, "long": 341893, "net": -2163714, "net_pct_oi": -39.64, "oi": 5458890, "price": 108.4844, "short": 2505607 }, "slug": "ust10y", "weekly_abs_change_percentile": 70.15209125475285, "weekly_change_percentile": 15.494296577946768, "weekly_net_change": -65299 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/cot/ust10y.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/commitment-of-traders" ], "caveats": [ "Friday's CFTC release describes positions as of Tuesday, so it cannot explain trading later in the week." ] }, { "id": "positioning-dxy", "domain": "positioning", "title": "US Dollar Index positioning made an unusual weekly move", "why_now": "The tracked trader group changed its net position by +2340 contracts; the move ranks at the 59.6th percentile by absolute size, while the current COT index is 86.5.", "as_of": "2026-08-18", "score": 66.05541825095057, "facts": { "category": "Leveraged Funds", "group": "FX", "history_changes": 1052, "latest": { "cot_index": 86.5, "date": "2026-08-18", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 14998, "dealer": -27257, "lev_money": 8112 }, "long": 15198, "net": 8112, "net_pct_oi": 16.93, "oi": 47928, "price": 99.554, "short": 7086 }, "name": "US Dollar Index", "previous": { "cot_index": 82.6, "date": "2026-08-11", "groups": { "asset_mgr": 16527, "dealer": -27292, "lev_money": 5772 }, "long": 15398, "net": 5772, "net_pct_oi": 11.65, "oi": 49541, "price": 99.715, "short": 9626 }, "slug": "dxy", "weekly_abs_change_percentile": 59.60076045627376, "weekly_change_percentile": 78.70722433460077, "weekly_net_change": 2340 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/cot/dxy.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/commitment-of-traders" ], "caveats": [ "Friday's CFTC release describes positions as of Tuesday, so it cannot explain trading later in the week." ] }, { "id": "series-business-applications", "domain": "macro", "title": "business-applications reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "business-applications.applications_value: highest in the full 22-year record (578926.0000 vs prior max 546719.0000)", "as_of": "2026-07-01", "score": 62.63034445585217, "facts": { "audience": "professionals", "column": "applications_value", "date": "2026-07-01", "history_start": "2004-07-01", "kind": "record_high", "note": "business-applications.applications_value: highest in the full 22-year record (578926.0000 vs prior max 546719.0000)", "points": 265, "prev": 546719.0, "score": 62.63034445585217, "slug": "business-applications", "value": 578926.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/business-applications.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/business-applications" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "series-consumer-confidence", "domain": "macro", "title": "consumer-confidence reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "consumer-confidence.confidence_12mo_ma: lowest in the full 32-year record (96.4936 vs prior min 96.5860)", "as_of": "2026-06-01", "score": 62.15747016883413, "facts": { "audience": "professionals", "column": "confidence_12mo_ma", "date": "2026-06-01", "history_start": "1993-12-01", "kind": "record_low", "note": "consumer-confidence.confidence_12mo_ma: lowest in the full 32-year record (96.4936 vs prior min 96.5860)", "points": 391, "prev": 96.586, "score": 62.15747016883413, "slug": "consumer-confidence", "value": 96.4936 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/consumer-confidence.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/consumer-confidence" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "series-consumer-sentiment", "domain": "macro", "title": "consumer-sentiment reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "consumer-sentiment.sentiment_12mo_ma: lowest in the full 47-year record (53.5750 vs prior min 54.5083)", "as_of": "2026-06-01", "score": 59.97667710472279, "facts": { "audience": "professionals", "column": "sentiment_12mo_ma", "date": "2026-06-01", "history_start": "1978-12-01", "kind": "record_low", "note": "consumer-sentiment.sentiment_12mo_ma: lowest in the full 47-year record (53.5750 vs prior min 54.5083)", "points": 571, "prev": 54.5083, "score": 59.97667710472279, "slug": "consumer-sentiment", "value": 53.575 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/consumer-sentiment.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/consumer-sentiment" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "dashboard-cycle", "domain": "market", "title": "The market-cycle structure barely moved", "why_now": "The score moved from 76 to 75 this week (-1).", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 54.0, "facts": { "change": -1.0, "end": { "date": "2026-08-21", "score": 75.0 }, "labels": { "band": "broad", "headline": null, "tone": "calm", "word": "Broad advance" }, "start": { "date": "2026-08-14", "score": 76.0 } }, "source_paths": [ "/data/cycle_score/cycle_score.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/cycle-tracker" ], "caveats": [ "Scores summarize different horizons and should not be averaged into one signal." ] }, { "id": "dashboard-economy", "domain": "market", "title": "The economy score held its ground", "why_now": "The score moved from 69 to 69 this week (+0).", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "score": 52.0, "facts": { "change": 0.0, "end": { "date": "2026-08-21", "score": 69.0 }, "labels": { "band": null, "headline": "Expansion, but uneven", "tone": "calm", "word": "Expansion" }, "start": { "date": "2026-08-14", "score": 69.0 } }, "source_paths": [ "/data/economy_health/economy_health.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/economy-health" ], "caveats": [ "Scores summarize different horizons and should not be averaged into one signal." ] }, { "id": "series-core-capex-orders", "domain": "macro", "title": "core-capex-orders reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "core-capex-orders.capex_value: highest in the full 34-year record (85393.0000 vs prior max 84360.0000)", "as_of": "2026-06-01", "score": 47.684999999999995, "facts": { "audience": "both", "column": "capex_value", "date": "2026-06-01", "history_start": "1992-02-01", "kind": "record_high", "note": "core-capex-orders.capex_value: highest in the full 34-year record (85393.0000 vs prior max 84360.0000)", "points": 413, "prev": 84360.0, "score": 47.684999999999995, "slug": "core-capex-orders", "value": 85393.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/core-capex-orders.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/core-capex-orders" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] }, { "id": "series-margin-z1-history", "domain": "macro", "title": "margin-z1-history reached a fresh historical extreme", "why_now": "margin-z1-history.margin_z1: highest in the full 80-year record (622199.0000 vs prior max 609675.0000)", "as_of": "2026-01-01", "score": 43.443666666666665, "facts": { "audience": "both", "column": "margin_z1", "date": "2026-01-01", "history_start": "1945-10-01", "kind": "record_high", "note": "margin-z1-history.margin_z1: highest in the full 80-year record (622199.0000 vs prior max 609675.0000)", "points": 304, "prev": 609675.0, "score": 43.443666666666665, "slug": "margin-z1-history", "value": 622199.0 }, "source_paths": [ "/data/indicators/margin-z1-history.csv", "/data/chart_ideas/chart_ideas.json" ], "live_hrefs": [ "/margin-z1-history" ], "caveats": [ "The extreme is measured against the available series and may be a level, not a timing signal." ] } ] }